Capital Brief: Trump's Fundraising Shortfall... & Sanders Big Win In CA?

Takeaway: Trump Trailing - Badly; Not All That Glitters Is Gold; Libertarian Limelight

Capital Brief: Trump's Fundraising Shortfall... & Sanders Big Win In CA? - capital brief


Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Capital Brief: Trump's Fundraising Shortfall... & Sanders Big Win In CA? - trump forward


Trump did not actively solicit donations during the primary election, but has softened his position after finding himself well behind on that front. The problem comes down to shortfalls in fundraising and boots on the ground - without one, you can’t have the other.


Republicans have only a fraction of the money they had 2008 and 2012, and less of an infrastructure than their counterparts. While he’s certainly learning on the fly, he’ll soon appreciate the fact that you can’t win a general election the same way you won the primary.


Capital Brief: Trump's Fundraising Shortfall... & Sanders Big Win In CA? - bern


Bernie Sanders continues to hold massive rallies in CA ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. If Sanders can pull off the win next week, it should be a huge momentum boost, but where does it carry him given that primary season will be over that day (with the exception of DC on June 13)?


A win for Sanders could only weaken Clinton, especially after she grabbed CA Governor Jerry Brown’s endorsement yesterday. The outcome is sure to be close, but when June 8th rolls around and Clinton is well over the delegate count, either the flame will be snuffed out of the Sanders campaign or his scorched earth tactics will continue all the way to the Democratic convention in late July. 


The Libertarian party has recently drawn more attention this election due to voters seeking alternatives to likely presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now with former NM Governor Gary Johnson locking up the Libertarian party’s presidential nomination along with former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate, expect the Libertarian duo to pull votes from presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.


Looks like a third party run may come back to bite Trump – and that doesn’t even include the potential entry of an Independent party candidate being recruited by conservatives - David French (yes, who?) is considering jumping into the fray.

McMonigle At OPEC Meeting: Why $50 Oil Is Likely Temporary

Hedgeye Potomac Research Group's Joe McMonigle is in Vienna, Austria where OPEC is set to meet tomorrow. He tells BNN why the mood is much lighter this time compared to Doha, why $50 oil is likely temporary and his expectations for OPEC's production talks.


Click image below to watch the full interview.

McMonigle At OPEC Meeting: Why $50 Oil Is Likely Temporary - z bnn

The Slow Slide In Global Bond Yields & What It Means

Takeaway: Global bond yields hit new lows this morning nailing our #GrowthSlowing call.

The Slow Slide In Global Bond Yields & What It Means - bond yields

Get that Global Growth is Slowing?


Global bond yields do. Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"Around the world (Swiss 10yr yield hitting new lows this am at -0.40%), long-term yields have had #TheCycle right from a GDP #GrowthSlowing perspective – question now is, with the Fed “probably” raising rates in June/July, what do we do with our league leading positions in Long-Term Bonds, Munis, Utes, etc? I say it’s time to book some gains and enjoy the summer – we can always buy them back."


Below is a chart of the direction of global bond yields (indexed to 100) and what they've done in the past year:


The Slow Slide In Global Bond Yields & What It Means - 6 1 10yr yield

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OPEC Insight | McMonigle: Saudis May Seek Oil Policy Change In 2017

Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle is on the ground in Vienna ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting. In the interview below with Leslie Hayward from Energy Fuse, McMonigle provides key insights ahead of the meeting and discusses why Saudi Arabia may seek an OPEC oil policy change in 2017.


Click below to watch.

An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives

Takeaway: Recently reported PMIs and revisions to the OECD's growth outlook spell out what we've long know here at Hedgeye. Global growth is slowing.

An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives - wall st


Wall Street storytelling about the stock market is at an all-time high. And one of those tall tales completely unravelled this week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes in a note sent to subscribers this morning: 


"One narrative (for almost a year now) has been that “PMIs have bottomed” – and, clearly, post yesterday’s Chicago PMI of 49.3, last night’s China PMI of 50.2, and this morning’s 3 month low Eurozone PMI of 51.5, they have not – neither has copper and/or 'Chinese demand.'"





The OECD announced it is lowering its global growth forecasts yet again, while our Macro team has been steadfastly predicting global #GrowthSlowing for well over a year now.



Here's the breakdown of the OECD's revisions:


  • Forecast for combined economy of 34 OECD countries is 1.8% this year and 2.1% in 2017 versus 2.2% and 2.3% respectively in November;
  • Similarly, the U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.8% this year and 2.2% in 2017, versus 2.5% and 2.4% in November;
  • The Eurozone economy is forecast to grow 1.6% this year from 1.3% in February. For 2017, the eurozone forecast was held flat at 1.7%;
  • Japanese growth is expected to be 0.7% this year and 0.4% in 2017 versus the 0.8% and 0.6% predictions in February;


An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives - China cartoon 05.06.2016 normal


Then there's this fabrication from China, relayed through state-owned media outlet the China Securities Journal.



All of this boils down to a simple reality.


Here's the key takeaway from our outspoken CEO Keith McCullough:


The Canary In China's Coal Mine

Takeaway: A collapse in Chinese Steel remains our canary.

Editor's Note: This is a brief excerpt from a recent institutional research note written by Hedgeye analyst Josh Steiner. Email for more information.

The Canary In China's Coal Mine - China cartoon 07.07.2015


Chinese steel prices resumed their collapse last week. They fell 7.4% w/w and have now retraced approximately 2/3 of their rally since February. We continue to view China's reflationary credit push in 1Q as the proximate cause for much of the broader-based commodities/EM rebound.


So it's relevant that Steel prices are collapsing again.

Chinese Steel

Steel prices in China fell 7.4% last week, or 185 yuan/ton, to 2317 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy. 


Click to enlarge.

The Canary In China's Coal Mine - z chi steel


Bonus chart ... Chinese Non-Performing Loans

Chinese non-performing loans amount to 1,392 billion Yuan as of March 31, 2016, which is up +41.7% year over year. Given the growing focus on China's debt growth and the potential fallout, we've decided to begin tracking loan quality. Note: this data is only updated quarterly. 


Click to enlarge.

The Canary In China's Coal Mine - z chi loans


More insight from Steiner below on The Macro Show

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