An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives

Takeaway: Recently reported PMIs and revisions to the OECD's growth outlook spell out what we've long know here at Hedgeye. Global growth is slowing.

An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives - wall st

Wall Street storytelling about the stock market is at an all-time high. And one of those tall tales completely unravelled this week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes in a note sent to subscribers this morning: 

"One narrative (for almost a year now) has been that “PMIs have bottomed” – and, clearly, post yesterday’s Chicago PMI of 49.3, last night’s China PMI of 50.2, and this morning’s 3 month low Eurozone PMI of 51.5, they have not – neither has copper and/or 'Chinese demand.'"

 

MORE EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL #GROWTHSLOWING THIS MORNING

 

The OECD announced it is lowering its global growth forecasts yet again, while our Macro team has been steadfastly predicting global #GrowthSlowing for well over a year now.

Here's the breakdown of the OECD's revisions:

  • Forecast for combined economy of 34 OECD countries is 1.8% this year and 2.1% in 2017 versus 2.2% and 2.3% respectively in November;
  • Similarly, the U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.8% this year and 2.2% in 2017, versus 2.5% and 2.4% in November;
  • The Eurozone economy is forecast to grow 1.6% this year from 1.3% in February. For 2017, the eurozone forecast was held flat at 1.7%;
  • Japanese growth is expected to be 0.7% this year and 0.4% in 2017 versus the 0.8% and 0.6% predictions in February;

An Update On Global Growth Slowing & Wall Street's False Narratives - China cartoon 05.06.2016

Then there's this fabrication from China, relayed through state-owned media outlet the China Securities Journal.

All of this boils down to a simple reality.

Here's the key takeaway from our outspoken CEO Keith McCullough: