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Hillary's Headache... Trump's Triumph... & Why $50 Oil Creates Tension At Next Week's OPEC Meeting

Takeaway: Hillary's Headache, Trump Triumphs; Bernie v. Donald?; OPEC

Hillary's Headache... Trump's Triumph... & Why $50 Oil Creates Tension At Next Week's OPEC Meeting - capital brief

 

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

HILLARY’S HEADACHES:

Hillary's Headache... Trump's Triumph... & Why $50 Oil Creates Tension At Next Week's OPEC Meeting - hillary clinton 44

 

The State Department’s IG released an in-depth report regarding Hillary Clinton’s controversial email use when she was Secretary of State. The report comes as Clinton continues to struggle with trust and favorability numbers. Although Clinton did not break any laws, it’s clear that she didn’t follow the rules. Despite her confidence moving forward, the controversy will continue to saddle her throughout her campaign - and if that doesn’t give one a big enough headache - the FBI is conducting a criminal investigation that could result in the DOJ pressing formal charges.  Did you hear that roar coming from Trump Tower?

TRUMP TRIUMPHS:

Hillary's Headache... Trump's Triumph... & Why $50 Oil Creates Tension At Next Week's OPEC Meeting - trump 7

 

Well, it’s official. Donald J. Trump is the official Republican nominee garnering enough delegates to secure his spot on the ballot come November. Although Trump has surpassed the amount of delegates needed to win the nomination outright, look for Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and Governor John Kasich to play roles in this year’s convention agenda as they attempt to leverage their respective delegates.

THE BERN V. THE DONALD:

Another primary debate is the last thing this country needs, but what if it’s between two diametrically opposed candidates (with a few exceptions) - one who has his nomination locked up and the other who doesn’t and won’t?  Sure, we’ll tune in. Bernie and the Donald are considering debating each other on the main stage ahead of the CA primary on June 7.  Now for two minutes ponder all of the issues that will come to the fore. In our opinion, Sanders has an opportunity to inflict more damage given that “he’ll do everything to defeat Donald Trump” hence softening him up for Hillary - or will it backfire and end up hurting her?

Why $50 Oil Creates Tension At Next Week's OPEC Meeting

Oil bulls are no doubt pleased that oil passed the $50 threshold on Thursday but the recent rally may create tension at the June 2 OPEC meeting. Our colleague Joe McMonigle departs tonight for Vienna to attend various pre-meeting salons and the meeting on Thursday. Joe will write notes from Vienna and hold a client call on Wednesday, June 1 to provides the latest updates.

 

While the rally is certainly welcome news for many OPEC members, Joe believes the Saudis see the price rebound as premature serving as a lifeline for US shale production. Stay tuned for daily reports on OPEC week in Vienna from Hedgeye in the bullets.


Cartoon of the Day: The Writing On The Wall

Cartoon of the Day: The Writing On The Wall - Bull case cartoon May 2016

 

With a "0" in front of GDP and S&P 500 earnings growth -8.5% year-over-year, the writing is on the wall for investors.


The Good Stuff: Reports and News Articles you May Have Missed This Week

Takeaway: The best of the best: our favorite reading material from the week of May 23rd.

Welcome to the long weekend! Need a little poolside media? Below is our list of the week's most interesting articles on healthcare and a little Maren Morris to rock you through them.

 

Clinical Labs

Stealth Research and Theranos, JAMA, May 18, 2016

 

Drugs

Long-dreaded Superbug Found in Human and Animal in US, Phenomena, May 26, 2016

 

Health Care Services:  

Memorial Sloan Kettering is blown away by response to Humans of New York's campaign, Crains, May 20, 2016

Moving Patient Payment Upfront, Modern Healthcare, May 21, 2016

Veterans Affairs Health Care System is trying a partnership with CVS to offer urgent care to vets, Healthcare Finance News, May 25, 2016 <CVS>

Medicare boss is spearheading changes to the way doctors get paid, San Francisco Chronicle, May 26, 2016

 

Health Care IT

The IT holy grail remains out of policymakers' hands, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <ATHN> <CERN>

Health care payment auditing company goes public, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <COTV>

 

Insurance

Anthem and Cigna privately bicker as they seek merger approval, WSJ, May 22, 2016 <ATHM> <CI>

Uninsurance Rates and the Affordable Care Act, May 23, 2016 Health Affairs <All Insurers>

 

Random Miscellany

Sorry, There's Nothing Magical About Breakfast, NYT, May 23, 2016

 

Shameless Sell Promotion

REPLAY: Post-Acute Providers - A Review of Major Regulatory Trends, May 27, 2016

Hillary's Headache, Trump Triumphs; Bernie v. Donald?, May 27, 2016

UPDATE: CMS's Part B Drug Demo Sidelined 'til 2019, May 24, 2016

ATHN | BMS FAMILY HEALTH, AUSTIN PHYSICIAN ALLIANCE AND UNITY MEDICAL SURGICAL HOSPITAL, May 24, 2016

 

A very Happy Friday and, as we so infrequently get to say, Happy Monday too. Let's remember the people that fought the good fight. Can I get a Hallelujah?

 

 

 

 

 

 Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week


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The Energy Election: Trump Provides More Clues on Energy Priorities in North Dakota Speech

Takeaway: Energy policy will play a prominent role in the 2016 presidential election.

The Energy Election: Trump Provides More Clues on Energy Priorities in North Dakota Speech - trump 44

 

Energy promises to play a big role in the 2016 presidential election and will provide sharp contrasts between the candidates on energy policies. The November election will be a key catalyst on several issues of interest to investors. This is the first in a series of client notes on The Energy Election.

 

As with most issues, Donald Trump has not provided much if any details on his energy policies to date. There is no energy plan on his campaign web site so we have been left with some campaign trail rhetoric with some snippets in press interviews and tweets.

 

Today we got a little more visibility on Trump’s energy policies during the candidate’s speech to the annual Williston Petroleum Conference in North Dakota. It was an important venue and the home state of Trump energy advisor - Congressman Kevin Cramer.

 

While the speech was still lacking details, it likely provided some reassurance to those in the oil, natural gas and coal sectors.


Steiner: ‘China Is An Enormous Systemic Risk’

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner discusses why the “unbelievable rate of credit growth” in China is now slowing and why it could pose risks for investors long the stock market.


FYI: Using Fed's Inflation Measure GDP Would Be Negative

Takeaway: Today's update on 1Q16 GDP was revised up to 0.8% vs the prior estimate of 0.5% but while using a misleading measure of inflation.

FYI: Using Fed's Inflation Measure GDP Would Be Negative - GDP cartoon 02.29.2016 

 

With a "0" in front of GDP and S&P earnings growth -8.5% y/y, should the Federal Reserve raise rates in June?

 

There's no debating the earnings recession anymore but, with Macro consensus predicting 2Q16 GDP growth of +2.3%  and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast at 2.9%, so it's worth reviewing our #GrowthSlowing call.

 

Today's 1Q16 GDP estimate was revised up to 0.8% versus the first estimate of 0.5%.

 

That's misleading.

 

In calculating economic growth, the government used the sub-1% GDP Deflator, which stands at 0.6%. Meanwhile, if the US Government used the Federal Reserve's prefered measure of inflation, core PCE which now reads 2.1%, US GDP would have been NEGATIVE in Q1.

 

Look at the difference between the two inflation measures in the table below:

 

 

In related news, this marks the 5th straight quarter where Hedgeye's Predictive Tracking Algorithm has been within 20-30bps of nailing GDP. That's more than we can say for the Fed and Old Wall Consensus which have an average quarterly intra-quarter tracking error of between 152 to 246 basis points.

 

#AccuracyWins


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