TIP TOEING TOWARDS TRUMP: Looks like Speaker Paul Ryan will take his time deciding when to endorse Donald Trump despite rumors that he was on the verge this week. Ryan and Trump remain deeply divided over major policy issues, particularly free trade and immigration, but Ryan allies feel the longer he holds out, the more damage he may inflict on the party’s chances this fall.
PLOTTING THE PLATFORM: Republicans have chosen to name three conservative members to lead the committee that will decide this summer’s convention platform. Moves were made after Trump mentioned he’d like to see changes made to the agenda that has essentially stayed the same since the days of Ronald Reagan. Look for issues that have united Republicans in the past to be highlighted; a strong party platform is important for unity going into July as well as corralling corporate convention sponsors and major donors already agitated by Trump’s views and commentary.
DEMS DROPPING DEBBIE?: High level Democrats are discussing whether or not Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (FL) should step down as DNC chairwoman before the big blue party in July. Democrats feel that Shultz has been too disruptive in uniting the party and whether her continued and veiled support for Hillary Clinton muddies the water for future discussions and negotiations. Adding to that, her most recent squabble with Bernie Sanders (we lost count) over rigging the system only adds fuel to the fire.
READY FOR WARREN: For the most part, Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) has stayed out of the dog fight, until now. Although she is the lone woman in the Senate who has not fully endorsed Clinton, she has become more aggressive towards Trump using his favored method of communications: Twitter. Now that there’s a common foe and an emerging sense of urgency among comrades, we expect much more of this and for Warren to play a major role in unifying the party in the coming months.
PROMESA KEPT: The House Committee on Natural Resources completed its consideration of H.R. 5278, the PROMESA Act. Up next - if the House keeps its promise – will be a full vote in the House mid-to-late June and subsequently move to the Senate ahead of a July default payment deadline. The legislation creates a federal oversight board for Puerto Rico, granting the power to sign off on local budgets and to authorize a court-supervised debt restructuring.
ALMOST THERE: For those of you keeping score...with his win in Washington State, Trump finds himself just a handful of delegates shy of the Republican nomination. He now holds 1,229 of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch.
GENTLEMEN PREFER BONDS: The bond market isn’t buying into the hope that U.S. GDP growth is +2.5% in the second quarter. (For the record, the Hedgeye Macro team’s Q2 GDP estimate is still below 1%). With the 10yr Yield at 1.87% and the 10s/2s yield spread tapping year-to-date lows, the bond market is signaling one thing: U.S. #GrowthSlowing. That’s been the Macro team’s non-consensus (and correct) call for over a year now and they’re sticking with it.
EUROPE: Beware the Ides of July: In case you missed it earlier in the week, our colleague and geopolitical analyst Dan Christman gave a rundown of current events shaping Europe - “Beware the Ides of July”