3 Nasty Looking China Charts

Takeaway: All clear in China? Not by a long shot.

Editor's Note: As our Financials analyst Josh Steiner remarked on The Macro Show today, "Markets were in free-fall earlier this year and pundits were saying a recession was imminent. Then, in mid-February, it all stopped. One of the reasons is that China started pushing credit like crazy, reflating commodities, emerging markets and the U.S. stock market. But China cannot keep rapidly growing credit like it has been. China is now an enormous systemic risk to the global economy."


3 Nasty Looking China Charts - China cartoon 05.09.2016

(STEEL) free fallin'

"Chinese Steel – Risk measures were subdued last week. However, the price for Chinese steel continued to drop, falling by another 5% last week, bringing the month-over-month change to -21% as the mid-February to mid-April artificial reflation trade unwinds. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy." 


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"Chinese Non-Performing Loans – Chinese non-performing loans amount to 1,392 billion Yuan as of March 31, 2016, which is up +41.7% year over year. Given the growing focus on China's debt growth and the potential fallout, we've decided to begin tracking loan quality. Note: this data is only updated quarterly."


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Debt, Debt & More Debt...

"Chinese Credit Outstanding – Chinese credit outstanding amounts to 148.7 trillion RMB as of April 30, 2016, which is up +11.9% year over year. Note: this data is only updated monthly."


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*This is an excerpt from an institutional research note. To access our research email

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 5 26


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 5 26


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 5 26


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 5 26

CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At S&P 500 Multiple Expansion Off February Lows

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.


"... Valuation is Not A Catalyst: Valuation isn’t an anchor in our decision making process over shorter-to-medium-term durations but it is a prime factor for others so the influence on prices can’t be dismissed outright. With SPX forward earnings estimates up just +1.5% off the lows, multiple expansion has driven most of the rebound in prices off the February lows. Upside to cycle peak valuation (recorded in 1H15) implies +68 SPX handles or +≈3.3% from current levels. In other words, unless the thesis is for accelerating earnings, that’s the upside you’re playing for under an assumption for a return to peak multiples."


CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At S&P 500 Multiple Expansion Off February Lows - SPX PE CoD

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McGough: 10 Reasons Why I Don’t Like Hanesbrands | $HBI


Retail analyst Brian McGough hosted a Black Book presentation earlier this week to update his short call on Hanesbrands (HBI). In this brief video excerpt, McGough lays out the ten reasons HBI shares are headed lower.

Capital Brief | A Storm Is Brewing: Trump Vs. Clinton

Takeaway: Trump Hitting Hard, Clinton Hits the Casinos, Cali Knows How To Party

Capital Brief | A Storm Is Brewing: Trump Vs. Clinton  - capital brief


Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email



Capital Brief | A Storm Is Brewing: Trump Vs. Clinton  - trump face2


Time to play hard ball. We knew it was coming, we just didn’t know when. Donald Trump doesn’t care about the issue or the context - he’s going ugly, early.  Although the presidential primaries are cooling, they’re still not over as neither candidate is their party’s official nominee yet and they’re already crossing the line – to the extent that one even existed this cycle.


Trump seems to keep the surprises coming and one of his allies summed it up perfectly: “What Trump is going to do only Trump knows. Trump is not scripted, he’s not programmed and he’s not handled, but he can read, and he does know the Clintons.”


A storm is brewing.



Capital Brief | A Storm Is Brewing: Trump Vs. Clinton  - trump casino


“How does anybody lose money running a casino?”


Well, people do lose money at casinos, but that’s not what she was referring to as Hillary Clinton follows suit by going after Trump’s past and this time, we’re talking business. Clinton poked fun at the presumptive Republican nominee for his four businesses’ bankruptcies, including his famously failed Atlantic City casinos. Additionally, Clinton shined a light on Trump Mortgages, their role in the housing recession, and Trump’s nerve in rooting for the economy to fail.



Capital Brief | A Storm Is Brewing: Trump Vs. Clinton  - beach


Californians are registering to vote faster than ever before. More than twice as many voters have registered this year than in the same four-month period in 2012. The growing voter groups identify themselves as Hispanics and Millennials. Both are left-of-center groups, with one favoring Sanders and the other favoring Clinton.


CA is too blue for Republicans to be competitive in the fall, but look for a more engaged electorate to impact the Democratic race there in less than two weeks.

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