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McCullough: Stop Whining, Stick With The Process

 

During the live Q&A section of The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough provides a “stick with the process” pep talk for a subscriber worried about his short positions.


What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof)

Takeaway: Despite the Fed's talk of rate hikes, we remain the bulls on Long Bonds (TLT).

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - tlt lowdown

 

"Unfortunately, the bond market isn’t buying into the hope that GDP is +2.5% here in Q2 (we’re still below 1%) – at 1.86% this am the 10yr Yield is signaling at 1.68% is still very much in play ahead of next week’s #EmploymentSlowing report," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a note sent to subscribers earlier today.

 

Take a look at the 10-year Treasury since the Fed's December "rate hike."

 

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - 10yr treasury 5 25

 

The flattening of the 10s/2s yield spread to a year-to-date low is another explicitly bearish U.S. growth signal.

 

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - 10s2s yield spread

 

That's why we remain THE BULLS on Long Bonds (TLT).

 

Stick with it here.


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - equity markets 5 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 5 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 5 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 5 25


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

CHART OF THE DAY: How To Risk Manage Our Favorite Macro Positions

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Since Utilities (XLU) and Long-term Bonds (TLT) already signaled immediate-term TRADE oversold (lower) last week, the only big thing that I like on the long side that is signaling oversold today (i.e. it’s at the low-end of the risk range today) is Gold.

 

Gold’s immediate-term risk range is now $1215-1260. So I’d buy some at $1215 and sell some at $1260."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: How To Risk Manage Our Favorite Macro Positions - 05.25.16 EL Chart


Cartoon of the Day: Atlas

Cartoon of the Day: Atlas - growth cartoon 05.24.2016

 

Global growth continues to surprise Macro consensus to the downside.


6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem

Takeaway: Below are six cartoons illustrating our latest thinking on the central planning #BeliefSystem.

Our quarterly macro themes form the bedrock of our Macro team's investment conclusions. One of our most recent macro themes is the crashing central planning #BeliefSystem, in which investors lose faith in the policies of central banking bureaucrats.

1.

The notion that central bankers are increasingly pushing on a string is being progressively priced into global financial markets...

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - Central bankers in corner cartoon 04.20.2016 

2.

... With one lone holdout: U.S. equities.

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - Easy money cartoon 04.28.2016

3.

While we admire the blind faith of domestic stock market operators in Yellen’s ability to keep “the game” going...

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - Yellen cartoon 03.31.2016 

4.

... We are keen to cite specific risks that marginally dovish policy in the U.S. will fail to overcome the depths of the domestic economic, credit and corporate profit cycles.

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - hour glass cartoon

5.

The #BeliefSystem breakdown is already happening in Europe and Japan, with respective equity markets in crash mode and currencies strengthening despite easy money policies. 

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - Draghi Peter Pan cartoon 04.13.2016

6.

It's just a matter of time before investors loose faith in Yellen & Co. too.

 

6 Picture-Perfect Cartoons Capture Breakdown In Central Planning #BeliefSystem - central bank cartoon 04.22.2016


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