What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof)

Takeaway: Despite the Fed's talk of rate hikes, we remain the bulls on Long Bonds (TLT).

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - tlt lowdown

 

"Unfortunately, the bond market isn’t buying into the hope that GDP is +2.5% here in Q2 (we’re still below 1%) – at 1.86% this am the 10yr Yield is signaling at 1.68% is still very much in play ahead of next week’s #EmploymentSlowing report," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a note sent to subscribers earlier today.

 

Take a look at the 10-year Treasury since the Fed's December "rate hike."

 

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - 10yr treasury 5 25

 

The flattening of the 10s/2s yield spread to a year-to-date low is another explicitly bearish U.S. growth signal.

 

What The Bond Market Tells Us About U.S. Growth (Or The Lack Thereof) - 10s2s yield spread

 

That's why we remain THE BULLS on Long Bonds (TLT).

 

Stick with it here.