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[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense

Takeaway: This marks the 14th straight week in which total bond flows outpaced total equity flows. Equities lost -$7.6 B while bonds gained +$4.7 B.

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

Investors' allocations were again net defensive in the 5-day period ending May 11th; total equity mutual fund and ETF flows came in at -$7.6 billion, -$12.3 billion below the +$4.7 billion inflow to total bond mutual funds and ETFs. This marks the 14th straight week in which total bond flows outpaced total equity flows.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI1 large 5 24

 

Domestic equity mutual funds continued their losing streak, giving up -$4.9 billion and even equity ETFs, which investors have favored in recent years, lost -$3.1 billion. However, international equity mutual funds broke their 8-week losing streak, bringing in +$430 million in contributions. Within bond funds, most categories experienced contributions last week, bringing total fixed income mutual fund flows to +$4.1 billion and bond ETF flows to +$603 million. Finally, investors shored up +$6 billion of cash in money market funds last week.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI19

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending May 11th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$4.4 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$2.1 billion and the 2015 average outflow of -$1.6 billion.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net inflows of +$4.1 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.3 billion and the 2015 average outflow of -$475 million.

 

Equity ETFs had net redemptions of -$3.1 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$1.4 billion and the 2015 average inflow of +$2.8 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net inflows of +$603 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.6 billion and the 2015 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.



Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2015 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2016:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI2

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI3

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI4

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI5

 

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Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

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[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI13 2

 

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[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI15 2

 

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Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2015, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2016. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI7

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI8



Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors pulled -$444 million or -5% from the utilities XLU ETF last week.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI9



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

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Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative -$12.3 billion spread for the week (-$7.6 billion of total equity outflow net of the +$4.7 billion inflow to fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is -$1.6 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week) with a 52-week high of +$20.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI10

 


Exposures:
The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | 14 Weeks of Defense - ICI11


Crash! Boom! Bang! (Asia Getting Whacked)

Crash! Boom! Bang! (Asia Getting Whacked) - China crash cartoon 08.25.2015 large

 

Amazing.

 

Not one Old Wall Media channel is discussing what happened in Asian Equity markets overnight. In Japan, the Nikkei fell another -0.9% and has officially moved back into crash mode. It’s down -21% from July's Equity #Bubble High of 2015. (Nikkei actually DOWN on Yen DOWN – that’s new.)

 

Then there’s China. Take a look at what’s going on there below.

 

Crickets.

 


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 5 24

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 5 24

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 5 24

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates   spreads 5 24


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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. Click here to learn more.

 

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The central planning #BeliefSystem is breaking down. 


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In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale provides an in-depth, granular look at why investors should pay close attention to the yield curve and what it says about growth.


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