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The Good Stuff: Reports and News Articles you May Have Missed This Week

Takeaway: The best of the best: our favorite reading material from the week of May 23rd.

Welcome to the long weekend! Need a little poolside media? Below is our list of the week's most interesting articles on healthcare and a little Maren Morris to rock you through them.

 

Clinical Labs

Stealth Research and Theranos, JAMA, May 18, 2016

 

Drugs

Long-dreaded Superbug Found in Human and Animal in US, Phenomena, May 26, 2016

 

Health Care Services:  

Memorial Sloan Kettering is blown away by response to Humans of New York's campaign, Crains, May 20, 2016

Moving Patient Payment Upfront, Modern Healthcare, May 21, 2016

Veterans Affairs Health Care System is trying a partnership with CVS to offer urgent care to vets, Healthcare Finance News, May 25, 2016 <CVS>

Medicare boss is spearheading changes to the way doctors get paid, San Francisco Chronicle, May 26, 2016

 

Health Care IT

The IT holy grail remains out of policymakers' hands, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <ATHN> <CERN>

Health care payment auditing company goes public, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <COTV>

 

Insurance

Anthem and Cigna privately bicker as they seek merger approval, WSJ, May 22, 2016 <ATHM> <CI>

Uninsurance Rates and the Affordable Care Act, May 23, 2016 Health Affairs <All Insurers>

 

Random Miscellany

Sorry, There's Nothing Magical About Breakfast, NYT, May 23, 2016

 

Shameless Sell Promotion

REPLAY: Post-Acute Providers - A Review of Major Regulatory Trends, May 27, 2016

Hillary's Headache, Trump Triumphs; Bernie v. Donald?, May 27, 2016

UPDATE: CMS's Part B Drug Demo Sidelined 'til 2019, May 24, 2016

ATHN | BMS FAMILY HEALTH, AUSTIN PHYSICIAN ALLIANCE AND UNITY MEDICAL SURGICAL HOSPITAL, May 24, 2016

 

A very Happy Friday and, as we so infrequently get to say, Happy Monday too. Let's remember the people that fought the good fight. Can I get a Hallelujah?

 

 

 

 

 

 Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week


The Energy Election: Trump Provides More Clues on Energy Priorities in North Dakota Speech

Takeaway: Energy policy will play a prominent role in the 2016 presidential election.

The Energy Election: Trump Provides More Clues on Energy Priorities in North Dakota Speech - trump 44

 

Energy promises to play a big role in the 2016 presidential election and will provide sharp contrasts between the candidates on energy policies. The November election will be a key catalyst on several issues of interest to investors. This is the first in a series of client notes on The Energy Election.

 

As with most issues, Donald Trump has not provided much if any details on his energy policies to date. There is no energy plan on his campaign web site so we have been left with some campaign trail rhetoric with some snippets in press interviews and tweets.

 

Today we got a little more visibility on Trump’s energy policies during the candidate’s speech to the annual Williston Petroleum Conference in North Dakota. It was an important venue and the home state of Trump energy advisor - Congressman Kevin Cramer.

 

While the speech was still lacking details, it likely provided some reassurance to those in the oil, natural gas and coal sectors.


Steiner: ‘China Is An Enormous Systemic Risk’

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner discusses why the “unbelievable rate of credit growth” in China is now slowing and why it could pose risks for investors long the stock market.


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FYI: Using Fed's Inflation Measure GDP Would Be Negative

Takeaway: Today's update on 1Q16 GDP was revised up to 0.8% vs the prior estimate of 0.5% but while using a misleading measure of inflation.

FYI: Using Fed's Inflation Measure GDP Would Be Negative - GDP cartoon 02.29.2016 

 

With a "0" in front of GDP and S&P earnings growth -8.5% y/y, should the Federal Reserve raise rates in June?

 

There's no debating the earnings recession anymore but, with Macro consensus predicting 2Q16 GDP growth of +2.3%  and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast at 2.9%, so it's worth reviewing our #GrowthSlowing call.

 

Today's 1Q16 GDP estimate was revised up to 0.8% versus the first estimate of 0.5%.

 

That's misleading.

 

In calculating economic growth, the government used the sub-1% GDP Deflator, which stands at 0.6%. Meanwhile, if the US Government used the Federal Reserve's prefered measure of inflation, core PCE which now reads 2.1%, US GDP would have been NEGATIVE in Q1.

 

Look at the difference between the two inflation measures in the table below:

 

 

In related news, this marks the 5th straight quarter where Hedgeye's Predictive Tracking Algorithm has been within 20-30bps of nailing GDP. That's more than we can say for the Fed and Old Wall Consensus which have an average quarterly intra-quarter tracking error of between 152 to 246 basis points.

 

#AccuracyWins


Just Awful: An Update On S&P 500 Earnings

Takeaway: A total of 491/498 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth down -2.3% and -8.5% respectively.

Just Awful: An Update On S&P 500 Earnings - empty pockets

 

A total of 491/498 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth down -2.3% and -8.5% respectively.

 

HERE'S THE BREAKDOWN BY SECTOR:

 

  • So far, 6 of 10 sectors have reported negative sales and earnings growth;
  • Our favorite sector short, Financials (XLF), reported sales and earnings growth down -1.7% and -14.2%;
  • Energy (XLE) sales and earnings growth down -30.1% and -109.1% respectively;

 

Just Awful: An Update On S&P 500 Earnings - s p earnings 5 27


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 5 27

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 5 27

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 5 27

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 5 27

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 5 27


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