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REPLAY | Today's Healthcare Q&A with Tom Tobin | $HCA $AHS $MDRX $ATHN $HOLX $ILMN

 

key healthcare insights you can't afford to miss

CLICK HERE to access the associate slides.

 

 

Today at 12PM ET our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman discussed their top ideas and the latest trends in the Healthcare space.

 

Topics included:

  • #ACATaper thesis update with latest employment and JOLTS reports and implications for HCA Holdings (HCA) and AMN Healthcare Services (AHS)

  • Allscripts (MDRX) earnings recap and latest thoughts on attrition

  • Athenahealth (ATHN) and Hologic (HOLX) tracker updates

  • Illumina (ILMN)…. Throwing our hat into the ring


Why The 10-Year Yield May Make All-Time Lows

 

In an excerpt from The Macro Show earlier this week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about whether the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will fall below 1.50%.


CHART OF THE DAY: Remember What Happened When The Fed Hiked In December? We Do.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... If the Fed RAISES RATES (June) into this slow-down, they’ll be the catalyst for DEFLATION (down yields) again anyway.

 

That last part is the part Consensus Macro got smoked by when they bought the Financials (XLF) and shorted “expensive” Utilities (XLU) in December 2015 on the DEC Rate Hike. The Fed drives the Dollar; the Dollar doesn’t drive the Fed."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Remember What Happened When The Fed Hiked In December? We Do. - 05.19.16 EL Chart


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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Tech Dummies?

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Tech Dummies? - NASDAQ cartoon 05.18.2016

 

"The Nasdaq moved back into full-blown correction mode yesterday (-10% from its all-time bubble high in 2015)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this morning. It's now down -9.5% from that high today.

 

Phew!

 

"Inclusive of the Buffett-bounce in AAPL," McCullough continues, "the Nasdaq is down -4.8% in the last month alone. Lots of chart chasers are not liking their Tech charts anymore (reminder: at #TheCycle peaks of 2000 and 2008 the Nasdaq put in its YTD highs in MAR-MAY too)."


FLASHBACK | McGough: Target Is A ‘Killer Name On The Short Side’

 

Earlier today, Target management blamed an “increasingly volatile consumer environment” for its weak earnings and guidance. Its shares fell as much as 9% on the news. In this prescient HedgeyeTV video flashback from last week, our Retail analyst Brian McGough discussed why Target (TGT) was among his top short ideas ahead of today’s earnings release.

 

 


Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector

Takeaway: Fed farmer credit data shows 1) Tightening credit indices; 2) A decline in repayment rates; And, 3) A deterioration in land values.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and charts from an institutional research note written by Materials analysts Jay Van Sciver and Ben Ryan with critical insights for the Ag industry and specifically companies like Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT). To read our Materials team's institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector - farmland

 

The big question that will be answered in the intermediate-term is the effect of credit contraction, repayment rates, and land values on farmer input consumption trends. As we’ve highlighted with our recent calls in the Ag. space, we believe a deterioration in these metrics will prove meaningful:

 

  • The Chicago Farm Loan Repayment Index contracted from 43 at the end of Q4 to 32 through Q1 (-44% Y/Y) while the Chicago Fed Farm Loan Demand Index increased to 156 from 134 through Q4 (+11% Y/Y) – The Chicago Fed Fund Loan Availability Index was flat Y/Y.

 

Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector - ag credit

 

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 7th District measurement of farmland values shows that farmland values are down -4% Y/Y, the largest rate of deceleration since Q3 of 2009. Cash rental rates for the 7th district are down -10% Y/Y.

 

Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector - ag farmland


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