CHART OF THE DAY: Housing Starts & The May-laise

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.


"... I’m going to give you a TTM slope and you tell me what macro series it belongs to:

  1. Slope = 0.00
  2. Slope = -0.00
  3. Slope = 0.02
  4. Last 4 Months Change: +0.0, +0.0, +0.0, +0.0



  1. Housing Starts
  2. Pending Home Sales
  3. New Home Sales
  4. Builder Confidence" 


CHART OF THE DAY: Housing Starts & The May-laise - 5.18.16 Starts total zero Slope

Cartoon of the Day: Oh Fudge

Cartoon of the Day: Oh Fudge - FED fudge cartoon 05.17.2016


The biggest risk in macro? Believing the Fed's serially overoptimistic forecast.

Ex-Energy Earnings Still Terrible

Takeaway: A total of 458/500 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth down -2.4% and -8.7% respectively.

Ex-Energy Earnings Still Terrible - oil mlp


A total of 458/500 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth down -2.4% and -8.7% respectively.


Here's the breakdown by sector:


  • So far, 6 of 10 sectors have reported negative sales and earnings growth;
  • Our favorite sector short, Financials (XLF), reported sales and earnings growth down -1.7% and -14.3%;
  • Energy (XLE) sales and earnings growth down -31.6% and -108.7% respectively;


Click image to enlarge

Ex-Energy Earnings Still Terrible - s p earnings 5 17

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Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 5 17


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 5 17


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 5 17


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 5 17

[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges

We've made some new enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to view a brief video of McCullough explaining how to use it most effectively.


Subscribers now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five of which are determined by what's flashing on Keith's screen and by what names subscribers are asking about. Click here to subscribe.


  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.80 1.70 1.75
S&P 500
2,038 2,082 2,066
Russell 2000
1,098 1,126 1,116
NASDAQ Composite
4,682 4,799 4,775
Nikkei 225 Index
16,011 16,820 16,466
German DAX Composite
9,794 10,068 9,952
Volatility Index
13.55 17.43 14.68
U.S. Dollar Index
93.11 94.99 94.55
1.12 1.15 1.13
Japanese Yen
106.44 109.99 109.07
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
45.16 49.13 48.61
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.96 2.22 2.03
Gold Spot Price
1,258 1,295 1,275
Copper Spot Price
2.03 2.13 2.09
Apple Inc.
89.99 95.01 93.88
657 720 710
McDonald's Inc.
127 132 129
Utilities Select Sector SPDR
48.41 49.92 49.45
Alphabet Inc.
700 740 730
Facebook Inc.
116 121 118

INSTANT INSIGHT | Where We're Headed: U.S. Dollar, CRB Index & Gold

INSTANT INSIGHT | Where We're Headed: U.S. Dollar, CRB Index & Gold - dollar cartoon 07.02.2014 large 

Get the direction of the U.S. Dollar right, and you'll get most things in macro right. As we've noted before, the dollar has a material inverse correlation to the CRB index, gold, and the S&P 500. So, with the dollar up three of the last four weeks, that's been a major headwind for the "S&P is gonna rip to all-time highs" crew. It also helps explain why the S&P 500 has been down three straight weeks.


Where do we go from here?


Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"Interestingly, but maybe not surprisingly, the US Dollar Index is starting to stabilize and signal a series of higher-lows (93.11 support) within its bullish long-term setup – consensus (CFTC futures/options) is positioned bearish USD and long Oil and Gold here."



Take a look at the chart of the CRB index. Upon closer inspection, the parallels between the commodities index and the U.S. Dollar are fairly obvious: 


"CRB Index (19 commodities) looks like the upside down of the USD on a 3yr look-back – inasmuch as USD would have to breakdown and hold below the 92-93 range, CRB would have to breakout above the 190-192 range and my math doesn’t see that happening anytime soon."



Then there's gold. We're still bullish ... but only at the right price.



More to be revealed.

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