Getting Paid? Mr. Market Remains Fond of Growth Bears

Takeaway: The S&P 500 is down 3 straight weeks and down 6 of the last 8 as US Consumption and global growth slows.

Getting Paid? Mr. Market Remains Fond of Growth Bears - bear 2


Growth Bears have been getting paid. this may is no exception.


Here's analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"The Yield Spread smashed to fresh YTD lows last week (10yr minus 2yr = 95bps) keeping the Financials (XLF -4.0% YTD) our fav sector on the short side vs. Utes (XLU +14.1% YTD) our fav on the long side."


(We've been the unabashed bulls on the Long Bond via TLT which is up 9% YTD versus flat for the S&P 500.)



In other words, Utilities (XLU) is the top performing sector year-to-date. We've been recommending it to our subscribers since January.


Getting Paid? Mr. Market Remains Fond of Growth Bears - xlu 5 16


As growth has continued to slow, there's been an unequivocal bull market in Gold (GLD).



Meawhile, there are plenty of global #GrowthSlowing barometers out there...


Take a look at Italy:



... And China:



Here's the global equity drawdown map:

Click image to enlarge

Getting Paid? Mr. Market Remains Fond of Growth Bears - drawdown



While global growth slows we're sticking with what's worked all year...

  • Utilities (XLU)
  • Gold (GLD)
  • Long Bonds (TLT)

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - equity markets 5 16


Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - sector performance 5 16


Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - volume 5 16


Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - rates and spreads 5 16

CHART OF THE DAY: What Works When Yield Spread Hits YTD Lows

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... Maybe that’s why everyone is getting long the Gold chart again. As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, they did so when the Yield Spread started to break down in 2011 too.


With the 10yr Yield falling another -8 basis points last week to 1.71%, the Yield Spread (10yr yield minus 2yr yield) pancaked to a fresh YTD low of 95 basis points last week. Flapjack flattening is not bullish for the Financials. It’s bullish for Utes, baby!"


CHART OF THE DAY: What Works When Yield Spread Hits YTD Lows - 05.16.16 EL Chart

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

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REPLAY | Special Free Edition of The Macro Show: Global Markets .. Grave Risk?

You're invited.

REPLAY | Special Free Edition of The Macro Show: Global Markets .. Grave Risk? - z ba ba


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough hosted a granular, no-punches pulled, deep-dive look at why markets are more vulnerable than ever and how to prepare for the uncertainty ahead.

As you may already know, Keith has been proactively warning our subscribers about the coming crash.

You do not want to miss this opportunity.


Click here to watch the replay.


Like what you see? Subscribe to The Macro Show here.

REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.


Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)




1. McGough: Behind The Massive Spike In Retail Bankruptcies (5/13/2016)



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough explains why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six.


2. As Neil Howe Predicted In March … ‘Trump Will Run To Left Of Clinton’ (5/10/2016)



Renowned Demographer and Hedgeye Sector Head Neil Howe is always one step ahead of the crowd. Case in point: A popular Washington Post article today lays out how presidential hopeful Donald Trump is “running to the left of Hillary Clinton.” In a then controversial video on HedgeyeTV, Howe predicted this would happen … back in March. Watch as Howe and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough review and update his prescient call in this brief excerpt of The Macro Show.


3. McCullough: Expensive? ‘I Love Expensive’ (5/9/2016)



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about why he’s still bullish on McDonald’s (MCD), Utilities (XLU), and Long Bonds (TLT) even though they are “getting expensive.”


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)




1. No Mirage (5/13/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - retail cartoon 05.13.2016


Despite Retail Sales numbers beating consensus estimates, the year-over-year growth numbers have been declining since the second half of 2014. Slower growth? That explains why retailers like Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) got crushed this week. We reiterate our #ConsumerSlowing call. 


2. The Spin Cycle (5/12/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - The Cycle cartoon 05.12.2016


"While it should surprise no one who has been on the right side of the US economic, profit, and credit cycle call that the #LateCycle Sectors of the US Economy (Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, Healthcare) are the biggest dogs for the YTD, the pace of the decline in the US Retail (XRT) sub-sector of consumer has caught many off-side this week," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in the Early Look this morning.


3. Precious Metals (5/11/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - gold cartoon 05.11.2016


It's been a tumultuous 2016 for investors but there's always a bull market somewhere. Gold is up more than 20% this year.


4. Dead On Arrival (5/10/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - earnings season cartoon 05.10.2016


A brief update on earnings season:

  1. 441 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q1 2016 numbers
  2. Aggregate SALES growth is DOWN -2.4% year-over-year
  3. Aggregate EARNINGS growth is DOWN -8.9% year-over-year
  4. Ex-Energy (EPS -109% y/y), Financials have EARNINGS DOWN -14.3% year-over-year
  5. Ex-Energy, Technology has EARNINGS DOWN -8.4% year-over-year 


5. An (Increasingly) Red Book (5/9/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - China cartoon 05.09.2016


Chinese equities were down hard overnight (Shanghai Comp down another -2.8% and -47% from 2015’s high) on terrible export (-1.8% y/y APR vs. +11.5% MAR) and import (-10.9% y/y APR vs. -7.6% MAR) data. To be clear, we’re not in the everything has “bottomed” camp.

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.47%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.70%