Takeaway: The 10s/2s yield just spread hit 2007 levels.
On The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough gave a sweeping overview of the many earnings misses in the sector this week. In addition to highlighting recent developments at companies on Investing Ideas, like Hanesbrands (HBI), Tiffany (TIF) and Foot Locker (FL), Brian discussed other high-conviction names he covers. Among them, his short Kohl's (KSS) thesis following it's lackluster earnings release and the subsequent -10% tumble shares.
Additional topics of discussion included: why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six; department store sales versus overall retail sales; and an update on e-commerce traffic.
Below is McGough's full presentation and the live Q&A with subscribers that followed.
Click here to access the associated slides.
Takeaway: Credit markets are yet another indicator of reflation reversal risk.
Watch this clip below.
In a clip of this morning’s macro show, we revisit #thecycle theme from our Q2 themes deck by highlighting reflation reversal risk as it pertains to credit markets:
- Higher low in spreads? The MOVE Index has been smashed to lows not seen since 2014 and high yield OAS has retreated to 2015 avg. levels on the whole. However, the market remains well off the 2014 cycle lows in volatility and credit spreads, and historical evidence suggests we won’t be returning in the current cycle.
- Sentiment: Real-Time indication of consensus positioning for a continuation in the reflation trade is visible in commodity leveraged credit spreads, global macro futures and options positioning, and forward-looking volatility expectations (MOVE and implieds in commodity markets)
- Pushing on a string?: Corporate credit as a % of GDP remains at cycle highs, capital markets activity has dried up significantly, and credit extension is decidedly tightening nationwide – there is no evidence of a mini-refinancing cycle despite the 3-mth move in credit markets.
- Consumption cycle: We won’t argue that a revaluation in “ability to pay” increases with higher commodity prices, but we expect that 2016’s wave of bankruptcies will matter for creditors, the labor market, and thus the broader consumption economy. As we’ve highlighted on a daily basis, consumption growth and labor markets peaked in Q1 2015 and are slowing into a continued corporate profit slowdown. This mix smells like incremental deflation on the margin with global macro positioning and expectations where they are currently.
CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.
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Takeaway: Below are a selection of interesting links to stories that caught our attention (for both good reasons and bad).
At Hedgeye, we rarely mince words in assessing Old Wall and it's media. Below are a selection of interesting links to stories that caught our attention (for both good reasons and bad).
- Ben Bernanke, Brookings Blogs, "Ending "too big to fail": What's the right approach?" An interesting read, if only to get up to date on the latest central planning orthodoxy surrounding "too big to fail."
- MarketWatch, "Fed’s Yellen says negative rates would need careful consideration." NIRP! Rep. Brad Sherman (D., California) released a letter from Fed head Janet Yellen in which she writes she cannot "completely rule out the use of negative interest rates in some future very adverse scenario."
- Wall Street Journal, "WSJ Survey: Economists Divided Over Next Fed Rate Increase." This one is just silly. "About 31% of economists surveyed by WSJ this month said the Fed will raise rates in June, down from 75% in April." As we Tweeted yesterday, in other words, "Faulty forecasters are uncertain about the whims of unelected bureaucrats."
- Reuters, "BOJ will act decisively using its 'ample' tools: Kuroda." BoJ head Haruhiko Kuroda said that the "risks to [Japan's] economy are tilted to the downside" but that the central bank will act "decisively" to achieve the 2% inflation target and reiterated that it has "ample" policy octions available to expand stimulus. Nope. Macro markets disagree. Nikkei was down -1.4% today.
- Clifford Scott Asness, BloombergView, "Hedging on the Case Against Hedge Funds." A thought-provoking op-ed on how best to evaluate hedge fund returns from the founder of hedge fund and asset management firm AQR Capital Management. It's as balanced an appraisal as you'll read.
Takeaway: Complacency about the credit cycle is at YTD highs, especially in commodity-related sectors.
Editor's Note: Below is #CreditCycle analysis via our Macro team in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning.
With renewed expectations for Fed intervention on growth slowing and the precedent of Central Bankers buying corporate bonds in Europe, bond market volatility expectations have been smashed.
The MOVE index is at a level not seen since 2014. High yield spreads have nearly returned to their 2015 averages. Energy OAS is below 2015 averages after trading +600 over that level back in Febraury, and materials and industrials spreads have nearly reverted back to 2015 levels.
What's changed? Expectations certainly have:
- Spreads being well-off 2014 cycle lows;
- Consumption rolling over; and
- Jobless claims picking up
A confluence of data suggests the cycle still cycles.
Takeaway: On June 6th, we will host a call to review the key issues facing RL management heading into its analyst day.
RL currently sits at the top of our Long Vetting Bench. The reality is that RL is one of the few stocks we can find in retail that has arguably found a floor, and has potential catalysts to take it higher. With RL Management pushing its 2017 guidance off until the June 7th Investor day, all eyes will be on this event.
On June 6th, at 1PM ET we will host a call to review our thesis, as well as the key insight on the issues we think management must address in its analyst meeting.
Details will be provided prior to the call.
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