The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 16th of May through the 20th of May is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough explains why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six.
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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
For anyone expecting/hoping Trump would storm out of the RNC and take up an anti-Ryan Twitter rant, we're sorry to disappoint you. For love of country, party, and dislike of both Democratic candidates, Speaker Paul Ryan and Donald Trump let the healing begin at yesterday's meeting on Capitol Hill without agreement on a number of core policy issues that divide them.
With the elections this fall impacting all three branches of government, we believe Ryan will gingerly board the Trump train to ensure that the Republicans are in the best possible position to defend his majority in the House as well as retain the Senate.
As Speaker of the House and the highest ranking elected Republican, we're not sure he ever had much choice. We're also pretty sure not a day goes by that Ryan doesn't miss his old job as Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee - passing comprehensive tax reform is easy compared to navigating this election season.
While Hillary Clinton has her hands full battling both Bernie Sanders and Trump, her supporters (read=superPACs) aim to win the war by defining Trump and running up his negatives on their terms - as he launches daily attacks on her. The Clinton-allied superPACS are not about to make the same mistake as Trump's primary opponents by waiting too long to make the case against him and have taken to the airwaves with ad campaigns targeting the presumptive nominee.
While we expect the ultimate focus for the next six months to be Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump vs. Bill Clinton has the potential to become the nastier of the two battles. Trump has already pointed to Bill Clinton's pass indiscretions and is labeling Hillary Clinton "an enabler." Trump was more than happy to drag family members into the mud during the primaries and we expect that to continue as he pivots to the general election.
One reporter put it recently, "Trump stoops to levels few are willing to stoop to. And often, this elicits an unwise overreaction." Bill Clinton is still a highly popular, global statesman and, despite his history, is fiercely loyal to his wife and is quick to defend her when attacked. The big question is whether he can or will maintain his statesman-like cool as Trump drags a graveyard full of personal skeletons out of the Clinton's closet.
On The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough gave a sweeping overview of the many earnings misses in the sector this week. In addition to highlighting recent developments at companies on Investing Ideas, like Hanesbrands (HBI), Tiffany (TIF) and Foot Locker (FL), Brian discussed other high-conviction names he covers. Among them, his short Kohl's (KSS) thesis following it's lackluster earnings release and the subsequent -10% tumble shares.
Additional topics of discussion included: why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six; department store sales versus overall retail sales; and an update on e-commerce traffic.
Below is McGough's full presentation and the live Q&A with subscribers that followed.
Click here to access the associated slides.
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