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REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. McGough: Behind The Massive Spike In Retail Bankruptcies (5/13/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough explains why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six.

 

2. As Neil Howe Predicted In March … ‘Trump Will Run To Left Of Clinton’ (5/10/2016)

 

 

Renowned Demographer and Hedgeye Sector Head Neil Howe is always one step ahead of the crowd. Case in point: A popular Washington Post article today lays out how presidential hopeful Donald Trump is “running to the left of Hillary Clinton.” In a then controversial video on HedgeyeTV, Howe predicted this would happen … back in March. Watch as Howe and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough review and update his prescient call in this brief excerpt of The Macro Show.

 

3. McCullough: Expensive? ‘I Love Expensive’ (5/9/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about why he’s still bullish on McDonald’s (MCD), Utilities (XLU), and Long Bonds (TLT) even though they are “getting expensive.”

 


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. No Mirage (5/13/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - retail cartoon 05.13.2016

 

Despite Retail Sales numbers beating consensus estimates, the year-over-year growth numbers have been declining since the second half of 2014. Slower growth? That explains why retailers like Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) got crushed this week. We reiterate our #ConsumerSlowing call. 

 

2. The Spin Cycle (5/12/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - The Cycle cartoon 05.12.2016

 

"While it should surprise no one who has been on the right side of the US economic, profit, and credit cycle call that the #LateCycle Sectors of the US Economy (Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, Healthcare) are the biggest dogs for the YTD, the pace of the decline in the US Retail (XRT) sub-sector of consumer has caught many off-side this week," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in the Early Look this morning.

 

3. Precious Metals (5/11/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - gold cartoon 05.11.2016

 

It's been a tumultuous 2016 for investors but there's always a bull market somewhere. Gold is up more than 20% this year.

 

4. Dead On Arrival (5/10/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - earnings season cartoon 05.10.2016

 

A brief update on earnings season:

  1. 441 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q1 2016 numbers
  2. Aggregate SALES growth is DOWN -2.4% year-over-year
  3. Aggregate EARNINGS growth is DOWN -8.9% year-over-year
  4. Ex-Energy (EPS -109% y/y), Financials have EARNINGS DOWN -14.3% year-over-year
  5. Ex-Energy, Technology has EARNINGS DOWN -8.4% year-over-year 

 

5. An (Increasingly) Red Book (5/9/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - China cartoon 05.09.2016

 

Chinese equities were down hard overnight (Shanghai Comp down another -2.8% and -47% from 2015’s high) on terrible export (-1.8% y/y APR vs. +11.5% MAR) and import (-10.9% y/y APR vs. -7.6% MAR) data. To be clear, we’re not in the everything has “bottomed” camp.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 16th of May through the 20th of May is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 05.13.16 Week Ahead


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Cartoon of the Day: No Mirage

Cartoon of the Day: No Mirage - retail cartoon 05.13.2016

 

Despite Retail Sales numbers beating consensus estimates, the year-over-year growth numbers have been declining since the second half of 2014. Slower growth? That explains why retailers like Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) got crushed this week. We reiterate our #ConsumerSlowing call.


McGough: Behind The Massive Spike In Retail Bankruptcies

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough explains why we’ve already seen more retail bankruptcies this year than in any full year in the last six.


Can Trump Unify The GOP? ... & The Clinton Super PAC

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

UNITY WITHOUT UNANIMITY

Can Trump Unify The GOP? ... & The Clinton Super PAC - paul ryan 23

 

For anyone expecting/hoping Trump would storm out of the RNC and take up an anti-Ryan Twitter rant, we're sorry to disappoint you.  For love of country, party, and dislike of both Democratic candidates, Speaker Paul Ryan and Donald Trump let the healing begin at yesterday's meeting on Capitol Hill without agreement on a number of core policy issues that divide them.

 

With the elections this fall impacting all three branches of government, we believe Ryan will gingerly board the Trump train to ensure that the Republicans are in the best possible position to defend his majority in the House as well as retain the Senate.

 

As Speaker of the House and the highest ranking elected Republican, we're not sure he ever had much choice.  We're also pretty sure not a day goes by that Ryan doesn't miss his old job as Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee - passing comprehensive tax reform is easy compared to navigating this election season.  

ALLIED AERIAL ATTACK

While Hillary Clinton has her hands full battling both Bernie Sanders and Trump, her supporters (read=superPACs) aim to win the war by defining Trump and running up his negatives on their terms - as he launches daily attacks on her.  The Clinton-allied superPACS are not about to make the same mistake as Trump's primary opponents by waiting too long to make the case against him and have taken to the airwaves with ad campaigns targeting the presumptive nominee. 

CLINTON KEEPS HIS COOL, FOR NOW

Can Trump Unify The GOP? ... & The Clinton Super PAC - bill clinton 23

 

While we expect the ultimate focus for the next six months to be Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump vs. Bill Clinton has the potential to become the nastier of the two battles.  Trump has already pointed to Bill Clinton's pass indiscretions and is labeling Hillary Clinton "an enabler."  Trump was more than happy to drag family members into the mud during the primaries and we expect that to continue as he pivots to the general election.

 

One reporter put it recently, "Trump stoops to levels few are willing to stoop to. And often, this elicits an unwise overreaction."  Bill Clinton is still a highly popular, global statesman and, despite his history, is fiercely loyal to his wife and is quick to defend her when attacked.  The big question is whether he can or will maintain his statesman-like cool as Trump drags a graveyard full of personal skeletons out of the Clinton's closet. 


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