More Kilotons: Kim, North Korea and a New Party Congress
U.S. Pacific Command commander Admiral Harry Harris makes no secret of his worry about North Korea and its young, aggressive, unpredictable leader Kim Jong Un. In open interviews, Harris says that Kim "is what keeps me awake at night." Given the ramp-up of antics from Pyongyang in just the last two months -- ballistic missile launches, submarine missile tests, bombastic rhetoric, all in the wake of a North Korean nuclear test in January -- it's no wonder Admiral Harris and SECDEF Carter repeatedly refer to the need to be "ready to fight tonight" in this dangerous theater of operations.
But there is a special level of bellicosity of late that pours from the Pyongyang propaganda machine; it's explained by the recently convened "7th Congress of the Korean Worker's Party," the first to be held in over 35 years; combined with on-going U.S.-South Korean military exercises in the peninsula, Kim Jong Un has unleashed both military threats and "Peace" overtures that have kept the Hermit Kingdom on the front pages.
In this light, look for at least three key developments affecting U.S. interests in the region over the coming weeks:
· First, expect another North Korean nuclear test. Besides anointing Kim as the North Korean leader for the next 50 years, a principal goal of the Party Congress is to "ratify" North Korea as a genuine nuclear state; another test cements that claim, at least in the minds of the Kim clique. Further, as one respected analyst recently said, "North Korea likes doing these kinds of things around U.S. elections!"
· Second, watch China's behavior. A new UN Security Council resolution (UNSC 2270) on North Korea, passed in March, gives UN member states significant additional authority to inspect North Korean outbound cargo, or cargo in-bound for North Korea. But China's help is a necessity if the resolution is to have any effect on the Pyongyang leadership Evidently, China so far has been at least moderately helpful, forcing major cut-backs to North Korea of items like jet fuel and coal.
° Washington naturally wants China to keep the pressure on; it's what makes decisions by President Obama and the White House on how robustly to challenge PRC military adventurism in the South China Sea so delicate.
· Third, watch the politics in South Korea. President Park Geun Hye's popularity is plummeting; she lost her parliamentary majority last month, largely because of frustration with her economic policies; but the public is also growing weary of her strong push-back to Pyongyang. Should a liberal coalition oust Park's conservative "Saenuri" party in presidential elections next year and gain the "Blue House," the U.S. will likely see a dramatic change in Seoul's official view toward Kim Jong Un; if party history is a guide, it would signal modest reconciliation toward the north, not confrontation.
Unfortunately, this dramatic outcome in Seoul would risk disrupting what has been the closest cooperation in decades amongst the U.S.'s key northeast Asian allies -- Seoul and Tokyo -- over how to deal with both Pyongyang and Beijing. It would also pose a major challenge to a new U.S. president in 2017, who must decide how best to deter Pyongyang while not losing a vital partner to the south that has been an indispensable ally for over six decades.
So while attention might be focused on a ritualized Party Congress in the north, an even more important political development is underway in the south. Business conditions there are certainly influenced far more by events other than bellicosity from Pyongyang - - like the extent of China's economic slowdown, for example.
Add, therefore, the Korean peninsula to the growing platter of national security worries for this president, and his successor. It's not just Pyongyang but Seoul as well that give Admiral Harris his sleepless evenings.