Clinton - Is it June 7th Yet? Cruz's Cornhusker Comeback? Digging Out of Debt
IS IT JUNE 7 YET?: With Bernie Sanders' victory in WVA last night, Hillary Clinton is looking to run the clock out this month - without attracting further damage to her general election chances. We've said before that the May primary calendar favors Sanders, but with the Republican field cleared and Donald Trump the presumptive nominee Clinton is unexpectedly (and unpreparedly?) finding herself under attack by him as well as Sanders - precisely at the time when she needs to unite the Democrats. Sanders is poised to win in OR next Tuesday and Clinton is now refocusing her attention on KY (also next Tues) where the coal comments that cost her WVA - which she won in a landslide in 2008 - are now cutting into her support there.
CRUZ'S CORNHUSKER COMEBACK? : Well that was close for a moment. Despite Washington's dissatisfaction with Trump as the presumptive nominee and Republican leadership torn on whether to publicly back him, the WV and NE primaries offered voters a chance to rebuke Trump as the standard-bearer - and they took a pass. Worse yet for Cruz, who offered up ahead of results that if he won he may return to the race, he's now a) lost and then b) lost again preemptively. Ouch.
CLINTON TALKS TYCOONS : The Clinton campaign floated a new attack on Trump, painting the billionaire as a heartless tycoon. No doubt this attack is an attempt to convince the "Never Hillary" Democrats, who feel Trump may provide the shakeup they so desperately want from Bernie, that Trump is less Bernie-like than Hillary. The jury is still out on whether this new approach will actually work to bring Bernie Democrats back into the fold (or backfire a-la-Goldman-speeches).
KING OF DEBT : Trump continued to blast past criticisms that his tax plan would raise the national debt by $45 trillion over 20 years and provide $3.2 trillion in tax breaks to millionaires, emphasizing that everyone would get tax breaks. He suggested he would increase taxes on the wealthy, but then said they would "pay less than they pay now" and then "On my plan they're going down. But by the time it's negotiated, they'll go up," which definitely cleared things up. Ahem. He also reiterated his title as "King of Debt," with comments suggesting a Trump Administration might not fully honor Treasury Department bonds. Never one to create confusion, Trump clarified to, "I understand debt better than probably anybody. I know how to deal with debt very well. I love debt -- but you know, debt is tricky and it's dangerous, and you have to be careful and you have to know what you're doing." We're sure global markets are breathing a sigh of relief for the clarification.
I'll TAKE 16 TONY'S AND A BAILOUT : Lin-Manuel Miranda may be able to convert a bunch of fuddy-duddies into theatre goers, but not even his talents can cajole Congress to rescue Puerto Rico from its free fall (if you have not seen his original song on the subject, it's worth a watch). Legislation that would create an oversight board to help manage PR manage its debts remains delayed, though we expect introduction as early as today. You'll recall previous efforts were blocked by the House who've grown tired of taxpayer-funded bailouts. Version 2.0 is being drafted with those concerns in mind, and the sell job is in full throttle mode. As if Republicans' electoral problems were not enough, with nearly five million Puerto Ricans living in the U.S., inaction would seem to be as mortal as a shot from Aaron Burr's pistol...
ALBERTA NOT AL-NAIMI: The big news for oil markets is the ongoing Canadian fires that have temporarily shut down production in Alberta's oil sands and not the departure of Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi. Halfway across the globe in Riyadh, King Salman reshuffled his cabinet resulting in the departure of long-time oil minister Ali Al-Naimi. He was replaced by former Aramco CEO Khalid Al-Falih who is highly respected and well-known in the global energy community. As our senior energy analyst Joe McMonigle wrote on Sunday, a change in oil ministers will not mean a change in oil policy. We expect the Saudi's to continue their market share policy at least through 2016 and do not foresee any big change at the upcoming June 2 OPEC meeting.