Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018???

Editor's Note: In an institutional research note, entitled "Reflation Reversal Risk Part II," Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale shows in granular detail how investors have priced-in a shockingly dovish Fed.


In other words, a look at the Fed Funds futures curve suggests "the next rate hike isn't being fully priced into the curve until April of 2018!" Below is an excerpt and chart from that note. (To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.)


Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018??? - Fed cartoon 06.17.2015 dove


"... That in conjunction with a dramatically compressed Fed Funds futures curve (2nd chart below) leads us to believe the Fed’s dovish pivot has been largely priced into the most affected markets and it’s likely that nothing shy of outright monetary easing will compress the forward rates expectations any further. Specifically, the next rate hike isn't being fully priced into the curve until April of 2018 (out from October 2016 at the start of the year)!”


Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018??? - Implied Yields on Select Fed Funds Futures Contracts

Click image to enlarge 

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