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Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018???

Editor's Note: In an institutional research note, entitled "Reflation Reversal Risk Part II," Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale shows in granular detail how investors have priced-in a shockingly dovish Fed.

 

In other words, a look at the Fed Funds futures curve suggests "the next rate hike isn't being fully priced into the curve until April of 2018!" Below is an excerpt and chart from that note. (To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.)

 

Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018??? - Fed cartoon 06.17.2015 dove large

 

"... That in conjunction with a dramatically compressed Fed Funds futures curve (2nd chart below) leads us to believe the Fed’s dovish pivot has been largely priced into the most affected markets and it’s likely that nothing shy of outright monetary easing will compress the forward rates expectations any further. Specifically, the next rate hike isn't being fully priced into the curve until April of 2018 (out from October 2016 at the start of the year)!”

 

Fed Watch: Next Rate Hike In April 2018??? - Implied Yields on Select Fed Funds Futures Contracts

Click image to enlarge 


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 5 12

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 5 12

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 5 12

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 5 12


CHART OF THE DAY: A Sneak Peek At Our Big Macro Themes Calls

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Not that we like to #timestamp and hold ourselves to account on our big macro themes calls or anything, but in our Macro Themes Deck (see Chart of The Day) we make our best ideas, across durations, very clear. Here are our Best TREND Shorts:

  1. Financials (XLF)
  2. Retail (XRT)
  3. Russell 2000 (IWM)
  4. SP500 (SPY)
  5. Spain (EWP)"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: A Sneak Peek At Our Big Macro Themes Calls - 05.12.16 EL Chart


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Cartoon of the Day: Precious Metals

Cartoon of the Day: Precious Metals - gold cartoon 05.11.2016

 

It's been a tumultuous 2016 for investors but there's always a bull market somewhere. Gold is up more than 20% this year.


6 VIDEOS: 'About Everything' With Renowned Demographer Neil Howe

Takeaway: In the videos below, Neil Howe covers topics like the surge in mental health services & Millennial to Boomer behavioral differences.

6 VIDEOS: 'About Everything' With Renowned Demographer Neil Howe - neil howe headshot

 

In case you missed it, world-renowned demographer and Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe hosted the sixth installment of his About Everything series yesterday, discussing the long-term secular decline of the cable industry. For the record, Neil's work has garnered the resounding praise of such polar political opposites as Vice President Al Gore and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. (Click here to read Howe's complete biography.)

 

During live About Everything broadcasts, Howe dissects a topic's key underlying demographic trends and distills the broader implications for investors and their portfolios. Below are the six complimentary video installments, in their entirety, along with Howe's accompanying written pieces. The wide-ranging topics covered include the surge in mental health services, the demographic drivers behind "less interest in things" and the behavioral differences between Millennials and Baby Boomers.

 

Enjoy!

 

1. About Everything: Does Cable Have a Future? (5/10/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything below, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe writes about why the cable and satellite TV industry's glory days are behind it. In it, Howe dissects the underlying demographic drivers and explains the broader implications for investors. 

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

2. About Everything | The Surge in Mental Health Services (4/28/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, renowned demographer and Hedgeye Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why "mental health services spending is riding a long-term attitudinal shift that has brought mental health issues out into the open." Howe explains why it's happening and explores the broader societal and investing implications.

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

3. About Everything | The Golden Age of Home Improvement (4/24/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, renowned demographer and Hedgeye Sector Head Neil Howe explores why consumer spending on home improvement is outstripping GDP growth and the key demographic trends behind this shift.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

4. About Everything | A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" (4/18/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why manufacturers and retailers should prepare for the possibility that “goods” aren’t coming back anytime soon. And, even when (and if) the industrial sector emerges from its long-term atrophy, the underlying framework of the “old economy” will look entirely different than what we see today.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

5. About Everything | When Less Is More (4/13/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why "we’re entering a new era in which simplicity — not choice — is the hallmark of a cutting-edge brand." 

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

6. about everything | Millennials Gone Mild: The Investing Implications (3/30/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of “About Everything,” Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the sweeping behavioral changes of Millennials (“Generation Yawn”) compared to prior generations, and spells out what it all means for investors and companies around the globe.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.


Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt'

Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

IS IT JUNE 7 YET?

Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt' - hillary lates

 

With Bernie Sanders' victory in WVA last night, Hillary Clinton is looking to run the clock out this month - without attracting further damage to her general election chances.  We've said before that the May primary calendar favors Sanders, but with the Republican field cleared and Donald Trump the presumptive nominee Clinton is unexpectedly (and unpreparedly?) finding herself under attack by him as well as Sanders - precisely at the time when she needs to unite the Democrats. Sanders is poised to win in OR next Tuesday and Clinton is now refocusing her attention on KY (also next Tues) where the coal comments that cost her WVA - which she won in a landslide in 2008 -  are now cutting into her support there.

CLINTON TALKS TYCOONS

 

The Clinton campaign floated a new attack on Trump, painting the billionaire as a heartless tycoon. No doubt this attack is an attempt to convince the "Never Hillary" Democrats, who feel Trump may provide the shakeup they so desperately want from Bernie, that Trump is less Bernie-like than Hillary. The jury is still out on whether this new approach will actually work to bring Bernie Democrats back into the fold (or backfire a-la-Goldman-speeches).

KING OF DEBT

Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt' - make america

 

Trump continued to blast past criticisms that his tax plan would raise the national debt by $45 trillion over 20 years and provide $3.2 trillion in tax breaks to millionaires, emphasizing that everyone would get tax breaks. He suggested he would increase taxes on the wealthy, but then said they would "pay less than they pay now" and then "On my plan they're going down. But by the time it's negotiated, they'll go up," which definitely cleared things up.  Ahem.  

 

He also reiterated his title as "King of Debt," with comments suggesting a Trump Administration might not fully honor Treasury Department bonds. Never one to create confusion, Trump clarified to, "I understand debt better than probably anybody. I know how to deal with debt very well. I love debt -- but you know, debt is tricky and it's dangerous, and you have to be careful and you have to know what you're doing." We're sure global markets are breathing a sigh of relief for the clarification.


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

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