Trump & Bernie's War On Math

Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

TRUMP'S TROUBLING NUMBERS   

Trump & Bernie's War On Math - trump 55

 

Donald Trump is under fire for waffling on the pillars of his economic plans. We think he has a bigger numbers problem - and his difficult task of winning over key demographics (particularly Hispanics) may have just gotten harder. Yes, his unfavorables are at a historic high for a major party nominee; and yes, his misguided attempts to win over those groups (think: TacoGate 2016) have not done him any favors.

 

But that may be nothing compared to the impending "Hispanic backlash."  Trump is backed up against a big border wall for a number of reasons: he has a net favorability among Latinos of negative 78% (while Hillary Clinton is at +29%). Since 1980, no Republican has won the White House without locking down at least 30% of the Hispanic vote, and Hispanic registration is up in a number of key states - CA, CO, NV and FL - to name a few. 

BERNIE SANDERS' WAR ON MATH 

Trump & Bernie's War On Math - bernie sanders another

 

The Democratic underdog is fighting over big numbers again, and this time they're coming at him from the left. The left-leaning Urban Institute did the math on Sanders' "Medicare for all" program estimating it would increase federal spending by $32 trillion over 10 years - yes, that's trillion with a T

 

Sanders had previously estimated the cost to be closer to a measly $13.8 trillion. But West Virginians don't seem too concerned. Despite Sanders' long list of policy proposals with no clear way to pay for them, he is likely to pick off another win in WVA today and the Democratic contest will just keep dragging on. 

CARRIED INTEREST, THE NEW INVERSIONS?  

Tax Notes recently suggested the Obama Administration could use the regulatory process to close the so-called "carried interest loophole." Treasury officials responded in an eerily similar tone it used during the run-up to recently-released inversion guidance, saying closing the loophole was a top priority and that Treasury is "continuing to explore its existing authority...but the department cannot eliminate the carried interest tax benefit by itself." 

 

Given the heat they are taking on their unilateral action on inversions, we would be surprised to see Treasury take on another battle.  But given Clinton, Sanders and Trump have all criticized the carried interest provision, the rhetoric on this issue will likely heat up just in time for the summer.


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more