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Since mid May, when the devastating earthquake hit producers in the central Chinese province of Sichuan, aluminum has extended its impressive run up (yes, this is inflationary).

In London this morning aluminum prices shot up to 4 month highs. See the charts below.

Here is a quick recap of some of the major data points that have been keeping this market on its toes:

May 11 - Sohar Aluminum's Oman smelter goes operational
May 12 - Sichuan earthquake
May 15 - Rusal announces construction of new 750,000T smelter in Taishet is underway
May 26 - Rusal announces expansion of Irkutsk smelter -170,000T annual increase operational in Q4
June 4 - Varanus Fire
June 19 - China reduces oil subsidies, $50T cost increase projected
June 26 - Chalco indicates problems with Saudi smelter project
June 26 - Rio Tinto postpones new $2.7B smelter start in South Africa indefinitely due to Eskom's inability to support a new facility (Rio's 3 existing smelters there running at diminished levels with blackout interruptions)
June 27 - Tat and Nalco announce plans to build a new $3B plant in South Africa
July 7 - Chalco announces lowered output at two Shanxi facilities due to electricity shortfalls
July 7 - NDRC approves new Yunnan Aluminum facility in Wenshan with annual capacity of 800,000T and expansion to add 700,000T at Chalco's existing Zhengzhou smelter.

Andrew Barber
Director
Research Edge, LLC