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An Animated History Of U.S. #GrowthSlowing

In this animated video, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough walks through the recent history of the #LateCycle U.S. economy, exploring peak corporate profits in 2014 to today’s lackluster growth.


MUST-SEE REPLAY | Key Trends in the Restaurant Industry: Speaker Series

watch the replay below

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides

*They will be available approximatley one hour prior to the call (please refresh your browser after 10AM to access the full presentation).

 

Friday, May 6th our Restaurants analysts Howard Penney and Shayne Laidlaw hosted the second installment of our guest speaker series. Phil Mangieri and Wally Butkus of Restaurant Research, Phil Hofmann BDO USA, LLP and other industry thought leaders  that focus on underwriting remodel/capex loans and unit valuations (see speaker bios below) joined Howard in the thoughtful discussion.

 

They discussed industry trends with key implications for high-conviction companies our Restaurants team covers, like McDonald's (MCD), Wendy's (WEN), Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Yum! Brands (YUM).

 

The call will focused on unit remodeling and answered questions about:

  • Current state of franchise systems
  • How leveraged are franchisees
  • Time involved to complete remodel initiatives
  • Costs of remodels
  • ROI of remodels
  • Feedback from franchisees

SPEAKER BIOS

 

Phil Hofmann - BDO

Phil provides consulting services on client engagements related to tax compliance and conflict resolution. Phil worked with the IRS for more than 30 years, and is well-versed in the food and beverage, retail and hospitality industries. He has deep experience providing consulting services on a variety of restaurant industry-specific issues, including cost segregation, bonus depreciation, tangible capitalization regulations, vendor allowances, Work Opportunity Tax Credit and charitable contributions, among others. He is a frequent speaker and instructor, most notably for the National Restaurant Association and the AICPA, and he is a regular contributor to BDO’s restaurant blog, Selections. Phil received his B.S. in Business Administration at Nebraska Wesleyan University.

 

Philip Mangieri – Restaurant Research

Mr. Mangieri is the co-founder of Restaurant Research LLC.  He was formerly FMAC’s SVP and Director of Research where he managed the Research Group’s franchisor relationships, created research processes and policies and designed research products. Prior to FMAC, he served as the head of all restaurant and energy related research for Lehman Brothers’ Franchise Finance Group.

 

Phil's background also includes experience in equity research gained as a Vice President-Senior Research Analyst at Cowen & Company. He earned a Bachelors degree in economics from The College of William and Mary and an MBA from New York University where he graduated with honors.

 

Walter Butkus - Restaurant Research

Mr. Butkus also co-founded Restaurant Research.  Mr. Butkus has been involved in analyzing the restaurant industry for over 18 years and was formerly employed at FMAC as a Senior Research Analyst where he was responsible for analyzing companies and trends within the chain restaurant industry. Wally graduated summa cum laude from the University of Connecticut with a bachelor’s degree in finance.


Cartoon of the Day: Stuck

Cartoon of the Day: Stuck - Fed cartoon 05.05.2016

 

What more can the Fed do? A preponderance of economic data is rolling over despite the central planner's best efforts.


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About Everything: The Great Productivity Slowdown

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe explains why the much-debated productivity shortfall – amounting to $3 trillion – is "simply far too vast to pin on mismeasurement." Howe suggests, "It’s time to take the productivity slowdown seriously" and explains the broader implications for investors.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.


Gundlach vs. McCullough on Utilities | $XLU

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses why he disagrees with DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach’s call to short Utilities. 


Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent?

Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

INSURGENT V. ESTABLISHMENT

Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent? - trump and clinton

 

We expect this election season to continue its unconventional trend far into the fall. Donald Trump's ascendancy has blurred the political lines - running to the left of Hillary Clinton on some issues and to the right on others. Now that John Kasich has dropped out and with Bernie Sanders mathematically eliminated, a Clinton v. Trump match up should not be viewed as a classic Democrat v. Republican race - instead there are strong undercurrents of an establishment v. insurgent clash with swaths of the electoral map and swing voters potentially in play.

 

We are already seeing evidence of Republicans "standing with her," but we also expect to see blue collar Sanders supporters giving Trump a look given his message on trade and national security.

CLINTON'S CONUNDRUM

Go back six or seven months and ask yourself if you ever thought you'd see the Republicans narrow their field of 17 candidates to one before the Democrat's field of three...This puts Hillary Clinton in the position of fighting a two-front war against Bernie Sanders on the left, and Trump for the most part, well, the right. This is not quite what she expected and planned for - especially now that Trump and the tattered Republican Party can regroup and concentrate exclusively on attacking her for the next six months.

 

It also forces Sanders to do some soul searching - although he is likely to do well in some upcoming states - will he continue to fight in a race where he is mathematically eliminated from winning and potentially damaging his party's chances in the general election?

WHAT WILL WARREN DO?

Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent? - warren

 

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has been one of the most vocal proponents of the #neverTrump movement all the while sitting on the sidelines without endorsing a candidate. On the heels of the news of Trump becoming the presumptive nominee, Warren went on a Twitter tirade saying that she will "fight her heart out" to make sure Trump isn't elected. If she is going to have an impact where (and when) it's most needed, sources say she'll need to step up and endorse Clinton sooner than later quashing any support for Sanders and helping unify the Democratic Party against Trump.


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