Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent?

Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

INSURGENT V. ESTABLISHMENT

Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent? - trump and clinton

 

We expect this election season to continue its unconventional trend far into the fall. Donald Trump's ascendancy has blurred the political lines - running to the left of Hillary Clinton on some issues and to the right on others. Now that John Kasich has dropped out and with Bernie Sanders mathematically eliminated, a Clinton v. Trump match up should not be viewed as a classic Democrat v. Republican race - instead there are strong undercurrents of an establishment v. insurgent clash with swaths of the electoral map and swing voters potentially in play.

 

We are already seeing evidence of Republicans "standing with her," but we also expect to see blue collar Sanders supporters giving Trump a look given his message on trade and national security.

CLINTON'S CONUNDRUM

Go back six or seven months and ask yourself if you ever thought you'd see the Republicans narrow their field of 17 candidates to one before the Democrat's field of three...This puts Hillary Clinton in the position of fighting a two-front war against Bernie Sanders on the left, and Trump for the most part, well, the right. This is not quite what she expected and planned for - especially now that Trump and the tattered Republican Party can regroup and concentrate exclusively on attacking her for the next six months.

 

It also forces Sanders to do some soul searching - although he is likely to do well in some upcoming states - will he continue to fight in a race where he is mathematically eliminated from winning and potentially damaging his party's chances in the general election?

WHAT WILL WARREN DO?

Clinton vs. Trump = Establishment vs. Insurgent? - warren

 

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has been one of the most vocal proponents of the #neverTrump movement all the while sitting on the sidelines without endorsing a candidate. On the heels of the news of Trump becoming the presumptive nominee, Warren went on a Twitter tirade saying that she will "fight her heart out" to make sure Trump isn't elected. If she is going to have an impact where (and when) it's most needed, sources say she'll need to step up and endorse Clinton sooner than later quashing any support for Sanders and helping unify the Democratic Party against Trump.


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