The Daily Macro Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges as well as rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products


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The Daily Macro Market Data Dump: Wednesday - world equity markets 5 4


The Daily Macro Market Data Dump: Wednesday - s p sector 5 4


The Daily Macro Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 5 4


The Daily Macro Market Data Dump: Wednesday - hedgeye rates   spreads

A Precarious Global Growth Setup

Takeaway: U.S. GDP sliding toward zero, Europe struggling with deflation, Japan still flailing as China releases phony (but declining) growth numbers.

 A Precarious Global Growth Setup - stop sign


in case you missed it, We'll say it again ... Global growth IS slowing


The evidence is obvious to even casual observers by now. U.S. GDP continues its slow slide toward zero, Europe is struggling to beat back deflation, Japan is desperately flailing just to stay afloat, while the Chinese politburo releases phony, albeit still declining, growth numbers.


As a result... surprise > global equity markets are getting hammered.


Below is equity market analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning:


"Buckle in Europe and Japan, that is… most European stock markets signaling immediate-term oversold but Euro not obeying overlord Draghi up at $1.149 this am; European Equities remain in crash mode from last year’s Global Equity Bubble highs; Spain now -26.3%  since this time last year w/ an election (for socialism) pending June 26."



Heading over to China... 


A spate of new reports shines light on the complicated situation evolving in everyone's favorite Communist country.



In related news, the China Securities Journal noted this morning, "Bad loan ratios rising at majority of Chinese banks in Q1." Meanwhile, Reuters noted the obvious, "Investors to remain wary of China for now."


Here's how all of this manifested in Chinese equities today. Spoiler Alert: It's not good.



it raises serious alarm bells For growth.


It also partly explains why Dr. Copper is down yet again this morning despite the recent reflation rally. (Incidentally, we've been warnings subscribers about global #GrowthSlowing for about a year and a half now.)



The slowdown in China is also handicapping the Australian economy, hence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low 1.75%.




(Yes, we're highly skeptical the Aussie central bank's efforts will yield fruit.)



A final rhetorical question... 


When global growth slows, what do you own?


That's simple... Long Bonds (TLT)


A Brief Update On Our Nasdaq Short Call

Takeaway: The Nasdaq is down -3.1% year-to-date and off -8.7% from it's all-time bubble high in July.

A Brief Update On Our Nasdaq Short Call - Bubble bath 9.9.14 large


Below is analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"I’m done apologizing for adding Nasdaq to our bearish US Growth Equity call on March 31; it was a battle, but month-over-month the Composite Index is -3.1% (SP500 is -0.2%, not up, so chart chasers are having some issues on the long side here); Big Cap Tech in a dead heat with Financial (XLF) and Healthcare (XLV) for worst S&P Sector YTD."



Notice the dead heat for last place in the year-to-date performance scorecard below (i.e. XLF, XLV and XLK):


A Brief Update On Our Nasdaq Short Call - sector update 5 4

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.47%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.71%

CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Growth Predictions = Pure Poppycock

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... Given that a recently reported GDP of 0.5% isn’t in the area code of “as expected”, I don’t think Williams has a lot of credibility as a Wall St. forecaster. But Lockhart’s Atlanta Fed actually has a “GDP Now” tracking model (that has recently had an intra-quarter standard error of 200-250 basis points!) that is NOT mixed. It’s flat out bad. So he’s “favoring” non-GDP data."


CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Growth Predictions = Pure Poppycock - 05.04.16 chart

Cartoon of the Day: Slow Grrrrowth!

Cartoon of the Day: Slow Grrrrowth! - growth cartoon 05.03.2016NEW


#GrowthSlowing globally (i.e. economic gravity) can’t be fixed by a central market planning #BeliefSystem this time.

Will the Stock Buyback Boom Go Bust?


In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale responds to a subscriber question about whether “financial engineering” can continue to prop up the stock market.

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