Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
TRUMP'S BIG KNIGHT:
Polls show that Trump is heading for a big win in IN, as he moves closer to being the presumptive Republican nominee. Ted Cruz hopes that the alignment of Republican stars - including the tepid support of IN Governor Mike Pence - will help him pull off a victory that breaks Trump's streak.
John Kasich has already abandoned IN, but still looks likely to receive a sizable number of votes - especially those from anti-Trump voters who are critically needed by Cruz to put him over the top. If Trump wins big tonight, he will only need ~50% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination - and momentum already has propelled him to a 30+ point lead in CA.
It's not just losing primaries that has Cruz's campaign concerned - his strategy of winning the nomination on the second ballot may also be crumbling. To date, Cruz has been very successful at nabbing delegate spots for his supporters in behind-the-scenes maneuvering at state conventions, but the loyalty of these supporters once they become unpledged is increasingly being questioned.
Combined with his underperformance in PA, and a loss in IN - a delegate desertion would sound the death knell for Cruz's campaign even before Trump potentially hits 1237.
HILLARY'S HOOSIER HOMESTRETCH?:
For the first time in months, Hillary Clinton's campaign out-fundraised Bernie Sanders $36 million to $26 million. Sanders soldiers on and vows that there will be a contested convention, but if he loses in IN today he will be hanging by a thread, and will continue to be the thorn in Clinton's side.
If he can pull off a win, it will change the narrative back in his favor, especially going into KY, NE, and WV - all states that are more favorable terrain to him - but he would have to take 65 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. A Clinton victory allows her to keep her focus on Donald Trump and the big picture, but it may come down to the bottom of the ninth tonight...
REID'S LAST WILL:
With retirement on the horizon, Minority Leader Harry Reid has expressed certainty that Democrats will retake the Senate this fall, and is confidently passing the leadership reigns over to Sen. Chuck Schumer. Despite Schumer's almost certain re-election in deep blue NY, he has gone all out on fundraising, and currently has $26 million on-hand.
This war chest should serve as a potent weapon for Schumer, who can funnel millions of dollars to candidates and committees - and help ensure Reid's prophecy comes true.