The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 2nd of May through the 6th of May is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 04.29.16 Week Ahead

Cartoon of the Day: A Look At U.S. Economic Growth

Cartoon of the Day: A Look At U.S. Economic Growth - growth escalator cartoon 04.29.2016


We don't believe the permabull's "all is good" narrative about the U.S. economy. Our forecast for the 1st half of 2016 represents the slowest pace of US domestic economic growth since the back half of 2012.

McCullough: What If Amazon & Facebook Can’t Go Higher?


In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Retail analyst Alec Richards respond to a subscriber’s question about whether companies like Amazon and Facebook can continue to prop up equity markets. 

Early Look

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Setting The Record Straight On Our Macro Calls

Takeaway: For reality-challenged critics chirping from the cheap seats, here's an update on our top Macro calls versus the S&P 500.


Setting The Record Straight On Our Macro Calls - macro calls


We'll let the numbers speak for themselves.


Dear President Obama: Who's 'Peddling Economic Fiction' Now?

Takeaway: US growth continues to slow from 3% to 0.5%, while President Obama claims our Macro team's #GrowthSlowing call is "peddling fiction."

Dear President Obama: Who's 'Peddling Economic Fiction' Now? - obama


“I actually compare our economic performance to how, historically, countries that have wrenching financial crises perform. By that measure, we probably managed this better than any large economy on Earth in modern history." -President Obama, New York Times Magazine, 4/28/16 




In case you missed it, yesterday's Q1 2016 GDP reading came in at 0.5%.


Yes, 0.5%. Meanwhile...



That's why President Obama's New York Times victory lap is a bit of a headscratcher considering first quarter growth was the worst it's been in two years. As we reminded subscribers yesterday, "We Called The U.S. Growth Slowdown (And Believe The Worst Is Yet To Come)." (Click here to read more about what we expect for growth in Q2 2016.)


Dear President Obama: Who's 'Peddling Economic Fiction' Now? - GDP cartoon 10.29.2015


To be clear, we've heard It all before.


Earlier this year, in his final State of the Union address, President Obama told the nation that anyone "claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction."


Meanwhile, U.S. growth has continued its downward descent, from 3% to 1.4% to 0.5%, so who's "peddling fiction" exactly? Now to be fair to President Obama, unaccountable Wall Street economists and unelected Fed bureaucrats completely missed U.S. #GrowthSlowing too.


So, no worries.


But we didn't.



We've taken President Obama to task for these kinds of statements before (see "7 Key Economic Talking Points For Serious Contenders at Tonight's #GOPDebate"). And considering yesterday's lackluster GDP report coupled with today's data on waning U.S. consumption and another declining PMI reading, we're sticking with the call that's been right for over a year now...

U.S. growth slowing

Are You Bullish? A Brief Update On The No Volume "Rally"

Takeaway: Volume was up +22% on yesterday's selloff.

 Are You Bullish? A Brief Update On The No Volume "Rally" - volume cartoon 5.20.2014 normal


The lack of conviction in the recent "rally" is obvious.


While exchange volume has dried up to a meager drip since the February 11 bottom, that all changed yesterday with a shocking flood of activity ... on a Down Day.


Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning. 


"Algos/quants lifting little offers on up days; liquidation on the big down days – we still think this is a Liquidity Trap. Total U.S. Equity Volume ramped +22% vs. its 1-month average yesterday (SPX -0.92%, Nasdaq -1.2% on the day)."



For More...


Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video below entitled, "You’re ‘Crazy’ Buying Stocks Now."


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