Trump Batting 1,000. Hillary Trounces Bernie. Next Stop Indiana...

Below is a brief excerpt from our Potomac Research Group colleague and Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

TRUMP'S THUMPING

Trump Batting 1,000. Hillary Trounces Bernie. Next Stop Indiana... - trump pic

 

Trump is batting 1000 after winning the past six states, and is now just a handful delegates shy of reaching 1000 - leaving him approximately 250 away from clinching the nomination.  His victory last night was the most commanding to date winning by larger margins and expanding his support across all voter demographics - even surprising Trump and his team. Next week's contest in IN becomes the next (and last?) battleground for the anti-Trump forces; the latest polls show Trump with a single digit lead over Ted Cruz and Trump will pour everything he has into winning the Hoosier state. He knows his chances of winning the nomination without 1,237 delegates could wreak havoc in Cleveland just as he'll be looking to unify the party. If Trump wins big in IN, it eases the pressure to dominate CA - but if he loses IN, then he'll have to grind it out until the very end.

A LEAGUE OF HER OWN

Trump Batting 1,000. Hillary Trounces Bernie. Next Stop Indiana... - hillary clinton

 

Yesterday's results extinguished Bernie Sanders' hopes to win the Democratic nomination. Hillary Clinton dominated the Northeast primary - winning four out of five contests and racking up more delegates than Bernie Sanders and is now sitting on 2,117 delegates and super delegates (with 2,383 needed to win). Sanders cannot surpass Clinton, though it doesn't look as if he's going quietly into the night - his goal now is to impact the Democratic platform and prevent Clinton from moving to the center potentially handicapping her going into the general election. Clinton is now rounding third with hopes of crossing the plate well-before the convention starts in Philly, and will work to convince Sanders - and more importantly his followers -  to support her.

MILLION$ ON MILLENNIAL$

Billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer has committed to spending $25 million through his climate change focused superPAC to drive turnout for Hillary Clinton in general election battleground states. The campaign will focus on younger voters - who so far have been reluctant to back Clinton and have flocked to Sanders - but whose support is vital to ensuring she can reassemble the coalition that carried Obama to victory, especially if Trump is able to overwhelmingly carry older, white voters. We expect to see similar voter drive campaigns launch into full swing as the primaries wind down.  

RYAN'S ROUTE

In the final stretch of the Republican nomination battle, the clash over the Party's soul is starting to ramp up. As we mentioned earlier in the year, Speaker Paul Ryan's task forces are finalizing concrete legislative proposals on health care, taxes, and national security to be released prior to Cleveland. This will help Ryan and Co. recapture the Party narrative from Trump or Cruz, and also give vulnerable Republicans a platform to run on in November separate and apart from the potentially toxic campaign of whoever becomes the Republican nominee.


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