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An Uncomfortable Market Truth In Europe

Takeaway: Blind faith in the central planning edifice is beginning to crumble. Case in point ... the ECB.

An Uncomfortable Market Truth In Europe - Draghi Peter Pan cartoon 04.13.2016

 

Investors are slowly starting to acknowledge that the central planning #BeliefSystem has failed. Despite ECB head honcho Mario Draghi's best efforts, there's more evidence out of Europe's muddling economy this morning. 

 

Here's the latest data dump out of Europe:

 

 

No surprise ... it's been a rough year for European equities.

 

Here's a smattering of performance data across the Eurozone (1-year change):

  • EuroStoxx 50: -16.1%
  • UK, FTSE 100: -11.5%
  • France, CAC 40: -12.6%
  • Germany, DAX: -12.8%
  • Italy, FTSE MIB: -21.4%
  • Spain, IBEX: -20.6% 

 

An Uncomfortable Market Truth In Europe - europe stocks

 

Last week, Draghi did his best to instill confidence. European equities bounced. Today, it's back to what actually matters. The data.

 

Is the U.S. next?


McCullough: You’re ‘Crazy’ Buying Stocks Now

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why he’s not going to be the “crazy one” buying U.S. stocks at this point.


Reflation Reversal Risk Is Growing

Takeaway: Short interest in the S&P 500 is the lowest its been since mid-December.

Reflation Reversal Risk Is Growing - caution tape

 

Investor sentiment is one of the key indicators we track. 

 

Unsurprisingly, what happens over the course of the market cycle is that most investors are:

 

  1. Most bearish at the market lows
  2. Most bullish at the top

 

As Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale and CEO Keith McCullough discussed on The Macro Show this morning, that's exactly what we're witnessing right now in non-commercial S&P 500 futures and options positioning. As you can see in the chart below, short interest in the S&P 500 is the lowest its been since mid-December.

 

Remember what happened next?

 

Click to enlarge

 

 Keep your head up out there.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.63%

6 Macro Market 'Reality Check' Charts

Takeaway: Ignore what's going on around you at your own peril.

6 Macro Market 'Reality Check' Charts - bubble cartoon 11.02.2015

 

QUESTION FOR YOU ... What's changed?

 

That may be the most important question to ask yourself right now. Here's the answer. Nothing. Nothing has changed. And that's why we're holding the line on our bearish thesis. 

 

It was our non-consensus call heading into 2016 ... and we continue to flag the risk that U.S. economic growth continues its slide from 3% to 2% to 1%. Meanwhile, corporate profits continue to contract and are on pace for the third consecutive quarter of declines. (Click here for an update on Q1 earnings.)

 

More on macro markets this morning via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers. Take a look at Copper:

 

"One of the many proxies to pay attention to right now on the “reflation” hope vs. the #Deflation TREND - -0.25% this am after failing to breakout above its MAR high; $2.31/lb Copper and $46 WTI are big resistance levels for me."

 

 

meanwhile, over to Europe...

 

After a reading of German business sentiment failed to meet expectations, Euro-zone permabulls continue to be battered by these ugly economic realities: 

 

 

That's why countries like Italy remain in crash mode. 

 

 

heading over to Asia...

 

Here's the Shanghai Comp Casino today:

 

 

... And Japan:

 

 

So, what should you own? As McCullough noted on The Macro Show today, Long Bonds (TLT, ZROZ, EDV) are "the most obvious position you should have" on U.S. growth slowing. Here's McCullough's incremental Monday morning update: 

 

"Was it a bad week for Long Bond Bulls or the last big buying opportunity of Q2? I say buyem (again) – and buy anything that looks like a safe yield (XLU, EDV, ZROZ) with the 10yr tapping the top-end of a 1.70-1.90% immediate-term risk range."

 

 

Back to reality this Monday morning.


CHART OF THE DAY: Earnings Season Reality Check

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Do (or did) you believe that growth would slow this fast, from 3% to 2% to 1%?

 

Or did you believe in it so clearly that you knew that the Financials (XLF) would start Earnings Season with the following reality:

  1. 32 of 90 “Financials” in the SP500 have reported their respective quarter
  2. Aggregate Earnings (non-GAAP!) are currently -17.0% year-over-year
  3. Financials (XLF) had their “reflation” rally now too (back to -1.2% YTD)"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Earnings Season Reality Check - 04.25.16 chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

 

1. About Everything | The Golden Age of Home Improvement (4/23/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, renowned demographer and Hedgeye Sector Head Neil Howe explores why consumer spending on home improvement is outstripping GDP growth and the key demographic trends behind this shift. (Click here to read the associated About Everything writeup.)

 

2. Under 60 Seconds: Starbucks Earnings Report | $SBUX (4/22/2016)

 

 

Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney highlights three key points from Starbucks’ lackluster earnings report. Earlier this month, Penney advised our subscribers to short the stock.

 

3. Dale: ‘Brexit Is The #1 Risk In The U.K.’ (4/22/2016)

 

 

With the U.K. divided over whether to stay or leave the European Union, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discussed the potential impact on the pound, equities and consumer/business confidence on The Macro Show this morning.

 

4. REPLAY | Healthcare Earnings Preview of Top Ideas and Q&A - $ZBH $ATHN $MDRX $MD $HOLX $ILMN (4/21/2016)

 

  

In this HedgeyeTV live Q&A from earlier this week, our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman provide key earnings previews ahead of healthcare earnings season.

 

Topics included:

  • ZBH: Read-through from SYK and JNJ earnings
  • ATHN: Tracker Update, will they miss the doc count?
  • MDRX: latest thoughts on attrition
  • MD: Maternity Tracker Update
  • HOLX: Facility Penetration by MSA
  • ILMN: Opportunity or is the end just beginning?

Click here to access the associated slides.

 

5. U.S. Economy Enters Most Difficult Part of Cycle (4/20/2016)

 

  

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discusses how the U.S. economy has entered the toughest part of the cycle and why our growth estimate remains so bearish.

 

6. Eye on Earnings: Brinker International $EAT (4/19/2016)

 

  

Hedgeye's Restaurants team shares their three conclusions from Brinker's earnings report.

 

7. Cruise Liner Earnings: What We’re Most Focused On (4/19/2016)

 

  

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan highlights the key issues his team is most focused on right now as we enter earnings season. 

 

8. $25 or $50 Oil? Here’s What McMonigle Says (4/18/2016)

 

  

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle explains why he believes oil prices are going lower in the short term, and where he sees it heading in the months to come. 


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