Eye on NY Primary: Trump Momo... Bye-Bye Bernie?

Below is a brief excerpt from our Potomac Research Group colleague and Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

BYE-BYE BERNIE?

Eye on NY Primary: Trump Momo... Bye-Bye Bernie? - bernie sanders bye

 

Today's contest in NY is a critical make or break moment for Bernie Sanders - and if Hillary Clinton wins big (10% +)- Sanders' nomination dreams all but evaporate. If the race is closer than expected, the narrative then favors Sanders, his crusade continues unabated and he becomes more than a serious challenger.

 

Despite being a progressive blue state where Sanders has roots, Clinton's political experience in her adopted state provides her an edge, and has helped her to hyper-localize issues. Sanders has attempted to retool his national message for NY, but it's too little too late to match Clinton's in-state infrastructure and strategy of tailoring ads and messaging down to each media market and borough.   

IF I CAN, MAKE. IT. THERE...

Eye on NY Primary: Trump Momo... Bye-Bye Bernie? - trump cruz

 

Donald Trump will win NY's primary today - the only question is by how much. A big win (55%+) would allow him to sweep almost all of NY's delegates, whereas winning less than 50% of the vote would mean sharing a handful delegates with both John Kasich and Ted Cruz.

 

There are five Northeastern states next on the map, and tonight's results will determine if Trump goes into them with the big 'mo' - or if he will be harried by his competitors and anti-Trump groups along the way. We're betting on the former. Cruz just wants the second half of April and the Northeastern primaries to be over.

CHECK & BALANCE

Yesterday, the SCOTUS justices were divided in their oral arguments with regard to executive actions made by President Obama on illegal immigration in 2014 - leading to the deferred deportation of nearly five million immigrants. The actions have sparked opposition from 26 states, who argue that the president had overstepped his executive role.

 

A split-decision - due to the current vacant seat - would leave the matter in a temporary injunction - as decided by a lower court and likely passing the issue to the next Administration, and dealing a blow to President Obama. 


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