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Takeaway: We hosted a call updating our Housing outlook for 2Q16 on Friday. The deck and call replay can be accessed via the links below.

Slide Deck: CLICK HERE

Audio Link: CLICK HERE

Video Link: CLICK HERE

REPLAY | HORSESHOES & HAND GRENADES - 2Q16 OUTLOOK - Bull Grenades

KEY DISCUSSION TOPICS: 

  • Fundamental Deceleration: Volume growth is slowing in the new and existing market. Home prices, meanwhile, are in a bitter tug-of-war between lagged demand trends and supply constraints.
  • Supply Side Economics: Supply has emerged as the big conundrum this cycle. Why is it so depressed and what is the outlook for it to change?
  • Seasonality Headwinds: Housing stocks follow a distinct seasonal trading pattern that offers a lot of alpha opportunity; 2Q/3Q are the weakest six month stretch of the year. 
  • San Francisco: A bubble or not? That is the question. We’ll take a deep look at the SF market. 
  • Big City Affordability: One of the more interesting phenomenon is where major metros stand in terms of affordability and what the outlook is for further price appreciation. 
  • Commercial Real Estate: The CRE market has run into some big speedbumps. Will this bleed into the Residential market? 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Christian B. Drake