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INSTANT INSIGHT: The Key Implications Of Oversold U.S. Dollar

INSTANT INSIGHT: The Key Implications Of Oversold U.S. Dollar - dollar crumbled

 

Below are a number of important callouts this morning to help investors risk manage these manic macro markets.

 

Top of the list? The U.S. Dollar.

 

Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"After falling another -0.4% last week to YTD lows of -4.5%, the US Dollar Index is signaling immediate-term oversold in my model for the first time in April (the 30-day correlation b/t USD and SP500 is -0.90)."

 

U.S. Dollar oversold implications?

 

As McCullough points out in this morning's Early Look, Commodities (CRB Index) have an inverse correlation (30-day duration) of -0.88 vs. the US Dollar, which explains Oil's pop last week:

 

"WTI +8% last week (after falling -7% in the week prior) will be as important to watch as anything US Equity Market Beta this week; risk range is signaling a lower-high of $39.99/barrel as Oil Volatility (OVX) signals a higher-low of 43.14."

 

With the S&P 500 and Commodities inversely correlated to the US Dollar (-0.9), oil and equity investors are clearly begging for a “dovish” Fed.

 

That raises an important question...

 

What actually gets investors paid when the Fed goes dovish and tacitly agrees with our Macro team's U.S. #GrowthSlowing call?

 

Long Bonds (TLT)

(up +9.5% ytd versus +0.2% for S&P 500)

 

 

INSTANT INSIGHT: The Key Implications Of Oversold U.S. Dollar - tlt say cheese


CHART OF THE DAY | Style Factors: What Is (& Isn't) Working In 2016

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Yep. Wall Street is as long “reflation” (Oil and Gold on an absolute basis, and SPY on a relatively less net short basis) as it has been all year long and still fighting the wall of worry on our Long Bond Bull.

 

The 10yr US Treasury Yield dropped another 5 basis points (down -55 bps YTD) last week to 1.72% and continues to signal what US Equity’s top performing Style Factor (Low Beta Stocks = +7.5% YTD vs High Beta -3.0%) does…"

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Style Factors: What Is (& Isn't) Working In 2016 - 04.11.16 chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. About Everything | A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" (4/9/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why manufacturers and retailers should prepare for the possibility that “goods” aren’t coming back anytime soon. And, even when (and if) the industrial sector emerges from its long-term atrophy, the underlying framework of the “old economy” will look entirely different than what we see today. 

 

Click here to read Howe's accompanying About Everything research note.

 

2. Who Wins In A GOP Contested Convention? (4/8/2016)

 

  

In a brief HedgeyeTV political recap, Potomac Research Group’s JT Taylor and Hedgeye’s Daryl Jones discuss the results of GOP and Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and who will be the likely presidential nominees on each side. 

 

3. Implications Of 2016 Presidential Election On Defense Industry (4/8/2016)

 

 

How will defense companies be impacted by either a Democratic or GOP president? PRG’s Lt Gen Emerson “Emo” Gardner USMC Ret. discusses the Defense budget and what investors should expect out of Congress with Hedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver.

 

4. McMonigle: What Lies Ahead For OPEC and Oil Prices (4/7/2016)

 

 

Potomac Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle discusses his expectations on an OPEC/Russia production freeze and the outlook for oil prices with Hedgeye Macro analyst Ben Ryan.

 

5. Replay: Healthcare Q&A with Tom Tobin | $ZBH $AHS $MD $HCA $HOLX (4/6/2016)

 

 

Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin an Andrew Freedman hosted a live Q&A today to review their latest research and answer your questions. Click here to access the associated slides.

 

6. Game Over. Central Bankers Can’t Do Anymore (4/5/2016)

 

 

In this brief exchange on The Macro Show, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe and CEO Keith McCullough discuss how global markets are closing in on a critical monetary policy exhaustion end point. “Why don’t people accept that?” Howe asks. “[Central bankers] can’t do anymore!”

 

7. The Case For Shorting Lazard | $LAZ (4/4/2016)

 

 

In this one-minute excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn highlights the key short catalyst for shares of Lazard and explains why the company is a compelling short.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Nikkei Kneecapped (4/8/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Nikkei cartoon 04.08.2016

 

Despite last night's modest gains for Japanese stocks, the Nikkei is still down -25% from it's summer highs.

 

2. A Crude Joke (4/7/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Oil cartoon 04.07.2016

 

No follow through on yesterday's 5.1% pop in oil prices. WTI back down today. 

 

3. Listen Up! (4/6/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Yellen cartoon 04.06.2016

 

 All eyes on the Fed today, ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes.

 

4. US Growth Stinks (4/5/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - growth  cartoon 04.05.2016

 

"Unlike many strategists (who missed calling the cycle top in US Consumption, Employment, and Profits last year), we have stayed with The Cycle call we’ve had all along here in Q2," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today.

 

5. Crash Test Investors (4/4/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Europe Japan cartoon 04.04.2016

 

Japan's Nikkei is down -23% from its 2015 high. Meanwhile, in European equities, drawdowns from last year's peak range from -13% to -28%.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 11th of April through the 15th of April is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 4.8.16 week ahead


About Everything | A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things"

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why manufacturers and retailers should prepare for the possibility that “goods” aren’t coming back anytime soon. And, even when (and if) the industrial sector emerges from its long-term atrophy, the underlying framework of the “old economy” will look entirely different than what we see today.

 

Click here to read Howe's accompanying About Everything research note.


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