Can Trump Hit The Magic Number? ... & Cruz's NY Woes

Below is a brief excerpt from our Potomac Research Group colleague and Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

TRUMP UNPHASED?:

Can Trump Hit The Magic Number? ... & Cruz's NY Woes - trump face

Although Donald Trump lost by double digits in WI, his campaign continues to assure supporters that he will hit the magic number. The mother lode of delegates will now be found in the Northeast (where Trump is polling well) and CA where he holds a lead over Ted Cruz - and his appeal to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's supporters has been well-received. Trump needs to win 62 percent of the remaining delegates - a tough task - but if his northern firewall holds, then again we believe it will all come down to CA.

CRUZ'S BRONX CHEER:  

Can Trump Hit The Magic Number? ... & Cruz's NY Woes - cruz cruz

On the heels of his WI victory, Cruz is finding himself unwelcome parts of the Empire State. Polls already have him in third behind John Kasich, and if Trump lands to a sizeable victory here, it would wash away any aura of Cruz gaining ground. Cruz has little wind in his sails following his WI victory, and the positive coverage that would normally follow such a win has been usurped by Trump's huge lead in NY polls and from his "New York values" comments made earlier in the primary. To make matters worse, his scheduled appearance at a Bronx high school was cancelled due to a threatened student walkout and protests. Kids these days.

LEE-DING THE LIST:

Appointing UT Sen. Mike Lee to the SCOTUS is suddenly the hot idea in Washington, and the not-so-subtle promotion of him may coincide with Trump's promised list of possible SCOTUS nominees. Lee is a conservative purist and is idolized by the more ideological wing of the Republican Party - which is currently rallied around Cruz. By invoking Lee's name and placing him on his SCOTUS shortlist, Trump could narrow his rift with conservatives, but we still don't see signs of him emerging as the great Republican unifier.