ISM Services: The Cycle Peaked In July 2015

ISM Services: The Cycle Peaked In July 2015 - sine of the times cartoon 03.03.2016

 

It's all about the Rate of Change...

 

While many on Wall Street cheered an expectations-beating sequential uptick in the ISM Services index, one data point does not make a trend. More importantly, the Services index and its individual components continue to trend lower year-over-year.

 

Here's some brief analysis from our Macro team in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"While industrial activity has stabilized against 13 months of negative comps, domestic service sector activity continues to slow off its mid-2015 highs. Headline ISM Services along with the Employment and New Orders components improved sequentially in March but the 9-month trend remains one of lower highs and lower lows.  On the Labor Front, the trend has been similar as yesterday’s JOLTS data for February showed Job Openings decline by -159K, continuing the 8-month retreat off the mid-2015 peak."

 

Here's the key chart on ISM Services

(Notice the peak in July 2015 and the year-over-year slowing in the data)

 

Stick with the process. Don't get sucked into Wall Street's storytelling. 

 

ISM Services: The Cycle Peaked In July 2015 - Math   Myth cartoon 03.30.2016