#BeliefSystem Crash

Client Talking Points


Big rip higher in the Yen to immediate-term overbought at 110 (vs USD) smoked Japanese stocks again, -2.4% Nikkei taking the crash from the July U.S. Equity market high of 2015 to -24.6% - negative yields is not working in Japan or Europe (DAX down -2.4% and -22.6% since last year’s top).


What went up to a lower-high and failed @Hedgeye TREND resistance of $46/barrel came straight back down – an 11% drop in the last week in WTI should back the machines off from chasing Energy related charts; risk range now = $35.09-38.64.


Forcing yourself NOT to buy/cover U.S. Equities at VIX 12-14 has saved/made you a lot of absolute and relative return since that July #Bubble High and that just happened again; FT with a long-only performance article this morning citing only 6% of Growth managers beating their bench in Q1 (worst since 1991).


*Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Demography analyst Neil Howe and Macro analyst Darius Dale live in the studio at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

McDonald's (MCD) hit an all-time highs last week. "They can't chase Energy Charts today, so they're just dog-piling into our long calls on GIS and MCD," wrote Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on Friday.


We've said it before, McDonald's has all the style factors that we like during these turbulent macro market times; high market cap, low beta and liquidity. The stock is up 7.5% this year beating the S&P 500 by more than 600 bps. In August 2015, Restaurants analyst Howard Penney wrote that "2015 will be the last time this stock is below $100."


CME Group (CME) stock is among the small cohort of financial companies that benefit from volatile markets. With the exchange's open interest continuing to expand, which will drag trading volume higher, CME Group is one of the few lower beta longs that will hold up relatively better in the current environment.


The exchange guided to just a +1% operating expense increase for 2016, guided to slightly lower annual taxes for '16 (with more activity coming from abroad), and again announced that open interest was setting a new record, at over 111 million contracts. Even assuming some mean reversion to just over 16.5 million contracts (depending on product group), 1Q is running at ~$1.20 per share in earnings, which means the Street will need to perk up its current $1.06 estimate. Simply put, this is one of the few growth stories in the current macro environment within Financials.


Non-Farm payroll additions came in over +200 again (+215K to be exact) and private sector wage growth was also “good,” increasing +4.2% year-over-year on Friday. We’re most concerned with "better" or "worse" from a rate of change perspective. The non-farm payroll number is "less good" (i.e. "worse") from a year-over-year rate-of-change perspective. Growth in non-farm payrolls peaked in February 2015 at +2.3% year-over-year and the trend since then has been one of decline (+2.0% Y/Y for March 2016). And private sector salary and wage growth peaked on a year-over-year percent change basis in December of 2014.


We remain bullish on Long Bonds (TLT and ZROZ), Utilities (XLU) and short Junk Bonds (JNK). We expect more alpha after what was a great Q1, as the back-end of the Treasury curve continues to get flatter regardless of Fed rate hikes. We were alone in that camp, in December, when we first told you that a rate hike was in fact good for long-duration Treasury bonds. Stick with what's worked.


Here's the Q1 2016 Scorecard (data through 3/31):

  • TLT +8.3%
  • XLU +14.7%
  • JNK +1.0%
  • versus S&P 500 +0.7%

Three for the Road


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" … via @hedgeye



You can be comfortable or you can be courageous. But you cannot be both.



32% of international students studying in the U.S. in 2015 were from China.

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Investors

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Investors - Europe Japan cartoon 04.04.2016


Japan's Nikkei is down -23% from its 2015 high. Meanwhile, in European equities, drawdowns from last year's peak range from -13% to -28%.

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About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things"

Takeaway: The industrial economy’s struggles reflect a perfect storm of trends— all pointing toward less interest in things.

Editor's Note: In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why manufacturers and retailers should prepare for the possibility that “goods” aren’t coming back anytime soon. And, even when (and if) the industrial sector emerges from its long-term atrophy, the underlying framework of the “old economy” will look entirely different than what we see today. 


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - z sto



Worldwide, the goods-producing sector is in trouble.


Ever since the Great Recession, global trade has struggled to keep up with GDP—something it used to beat easily. Over the last two years, the global manufacturing PMI has been steadily sinking.


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - neil chart 1


The U.S. PMI has been under 50.0 for five of the last six months. Globally, both output and new orders are decelerating—for example in China, where manufacturing has been contracting for 13 straight months.


And what about commodity and producer prices? They’ve been tanking. Amazingly, the PPI in just about every major economy has been stuck in deflation since the summer of 2014. 


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - neil chart2


Goods are being lapped by services.  The services sector—encompassing activities like media, software, health care, and finance—has posted just one month of contraction over the past two years.


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - callout box


The decline of goods and the rise of services, of course, is a long-term trend that began many decades ago in the high-income world. U.S manufacturing employment peaked in 1979 and has mostly been declining ever since. Yet there was a brief respite following the Great Recession, especially here in the United States. Now, however, the goods sector is once again under assault. 


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - neil chart 3


Let’s take a look at some of the new forces that may be driving it down.



The China slowdown

Up until 2014, China’s voracious appetite for more industrial capacity, housing, and infrastructure was propping up raw material prices and goods production worldwide. In its heyday, China was consuming roughly half of the world’s supply of just about every industrial input—from steel and copper to cement trucks and construction cranes. No longer.


Urbanization & Extended Familes

Over the last decade, U.S. rural counties have been depopulating and core urban areas have been growing much faster than historical trend. A rising share of Millennials are ditching their cars, flocking to cities, and starting out their careers in cramped apartments with limited space. More than a quarter of 18- to 34-year-olds live in their parents’ homes and don’t need to buy their own household goods.


Growth of the sharing economy

Old computers and furniture no longer get thrown in the trash, but now enjoy a second life thanks to services like Craigslist and eBay. Platforms like Uber and NeighborGoods allow people to find and use items they want without buying them.


“Experiences” as the new form of conspicuous consumption

In the old days, we bought expensive things to affirm their social status. Nowadays, we can buy expensive experiences and curate them on social media. We can thereby define ourselves more by what we do than by what we own. This trend has taken on new meaning with Millennials, who would much rather go out to dinner or attend a music festival than purchase the latest handbag or golf club.


About Everything: A Perfect Storm of Trends Points to Less Interest In "Things" - neil chart 4


Digital unicorns

Thanks to monumental advances in IT capabilities and infinite returns to scale, entrepreneurs can now start a profitable company without spending much at all on physical capital (or even on employees). Think Google, Uber, and Amazon. The whole concept of “book value” assets is becoming antiquated.


Demographic change

Aging societies (I’m looking at you, Europe and East Asia) no longer require capital-widening investment. A contracting working-age population no longer needs new factories—or even new houses. Moreover, the retired elderly are the least likely to spend on things and the most likely to spend on services (starting with health care and personal care). What’s more, they receive their benefits from taxes on young people—who historically are the most likely to want to buy things.



Falling commodity prices are hammering developing countries. Major players in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have entered a “tailspin.” If this decline is indeed the new normal, poor commodity-exporting countries will have to turn to human capital—like India and the Philippines, which are turning their fluency in English to open up new service  opportunities for the working class.


U.S. retailers are updating their playbooks. Companies from Urban Outfitters to REI are turning their stores into “experiences” with fun diversions and top-notch customer service. Others, like Home Depot and Lowe’s, are expanding into new markets (home services, in this case). And e-tailers like eBay and Bonobos are going high-touch with new brick-and-mortar outlets.


The U.S. economy is encountering an imbalance between the buying of private things (which is weakening) and the backlog of demand for public things like infrastructure (which is growing). It was the G.I. Generation’s commitment to building a new public infrastructure in the 1930s, ‘40s, and early ‘50s, which enabled the booming “affluent society” in subsequent decades. America may be ready for a reboot.



Manufacturers and retailers should prepare for the possibility that “goods” aren’t coming back anytime soon. Even when (and if) the industrial sector emerges from its long-term atrophy, the underlying framework of the “old economy” will look entirely different than what we see today. 


Our monthly sentiment run is a behavioral, market-based gauge of investor sentiment in the Basic Materials Sector. Any relative performance measure is tied to the benchmark S&P 500 Materials Sector INDEX (GICS). Further screening methodologies are included in the link to the tracker below.




CLICK HERE to access this presentation.


Key Call-Outs:


Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment


  • Looking at short-interest, 5 of the top 12 least shorted names are in the Gold Mining & Chemicals space with large-cap Diversified Metals and Miners being the most heavily shorted (FCX, AA, TCK, AWC, FMG). With the reflation in commodity-leveraged sectors from the February lows, short-interest has declined 2-5% of float in the aforementioned 5 large cap miners. Gold Miners and Trading & Distribution are the least heavily shorted sub-sectors with Commodity Chemicals, Coal, and Aluminum the most heavily shorted.
  • 9 of the top 12 with the lowest buy ratings are in the Metals & Mining space, with 4 of those 9 being Gold Miners. Forest Product companies West Fraser Timber and Canfor Corporation have the highest sell-side “BUY” ratings in the sector. Construction Materials is the other sub-sector with the highest sell-side “BUY” ratings
  • Combining consensus “buy” ratings and short-interest, Forest Products, Diversified Chemicals, and Specialty Chemicals names have the most positive relative sentiment when combining both metrics. Diversified Metals and Mining, Aluminum, & Steel have the most negative sentiment.
  • With the move in the precious metals against a depreciating USD YTD, relative outperformance, declines in volatility premiums, and net futures and options positioning all suggest the market views Gold Miners much more favorably vs. the beginning of 2016. Earnings estimates have also been revised higher with little sector short-interest prices as much of gold production and sales in the sector is left unhedged. Looking at gold derivative markets, the market has gone from a consensus net short futures and options position moving into 2016, to a consensus long position in gold (TTM and 3 year z-scores are tracking +2.2 and +2.7 respectively). With that being said bullish price and VWAP momentum and the bullish rate-of-change in contract positioning and open interest have slowed substantially month-over-month.
  • The market has treated the Fertilizer and Ag. Chemicals relatively poorly over the last year with bearish top-down macro and industry fundamentals weighing on the sector. MOS, POT, CF, and YARA are among the top 12 underperformers relative to the XLB on a 1-mth window. YARA, AGU, and K+S are trading -2.5, -1.9, -1.9 (SIGMA) on a relative basis below the S&P 500 Materials Index on a 6-mth window. YARA, AGU, and CF are trading -2.5, -1.8, -1.8 (SIGMA) on a relative basis below the S&P 500 Materials Index on a 1-Year window.    
  • The largest sector divergences in growth metrics (TOP-LINE, OPERATING, BOTTOM LINE) exist in the mining space. We expect a downward revision in sell-side estimates in the space as many mining company expectations still need to be taken down while some are already discounted. Earnings growth estimates remain depressed in the large cap-diversified Metals & Mining Companies (TCK, VALE, FMG). Gold Miner earnings expectations have been upwardly revised with the YTD move in gold prices while some remain depressed. We attribute any depressed gold miner earnings expectations to a lag in sell-side revisions. 5 of the top 12 names with the highest earnings growth expectations are Gold Miners (EGO, ACA, AEM, GG, AUY).


[UNLOCKED] Early Look: The Taming of Profits

Editor's Note: The Early Look below was written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough one week ago. It crystallizes many of our current thoughts about the precarious macro setup and why we think U.S. equities are in trouble. Click here to get it delivered in your inbox weekday mornings.

*  *  *  *

“No profit grows where no pleasure is taken.”

-William Shakespeare


And, generally speaking, no multiple expansion grows when there’s no corporate profit growth. Rather than The Taming of the Shrew (i.e. where that Shakespeare quote comes from), USA is seeing The Taming of Profits.


No, I’m not talking about the taming of US stock market profits and/or returns (i.e. the ones that were negative in 2015 and mostly negative for 2016 YTD) – I’m simply talking about US Corporate Profits, which were reported to have remained in #Recession on Friday.


No worries. We’ll probably be the only ones on Wall St. writing about it this morning. If only the bulls of the 2015 peak warned you that Q415 corporate profits would slow another -540 basis points sequentially (vs. Q3 when they first went negative) to -10.5% year-over-year.


[UNLOCKED] Early Look: The Taming of Profits - recession cartoon 02.22.2016


Back to the Global Macro Grind


As Darius Dale wrote to our Institutional clients on Friday, you have to go all the way back to the depths of the 2008 Financial Crisis (Q408) to find a worse year-over-year decline in US Corporate Profits.


“More importantly, Q4 marked the 2nd consecutive quarter of declining corporate profit growth… such occurrences have been proceeded by stock market crashes in the subsequent year for at least the past 30 years (5 occurrences).”


Since Q4 ended on December 31st (they haven’t been able to centrally plan a change in the calendar dates yet), has anyone considered why we just saw the worst 6 week start to a stock market year ever? Yep, it’s the Profit vs. Credit Cycle (within the Economic Cycle), stupid.


Ok. If you’re not stupid, but really super smart and still blaming “the algos and risk parity funds” for the AUG-SEP and DEC-FEB US stock market declines, but giving them 0% credit for the JUL, OCT, and MAR decelerating volume bounces… all good, Old Wall broheem, all good.


Many who missed the economic cycle slowing from its peak (and the commensurate profit #slowing and credit cycles that always come along with such a rate of change move) will blame the US Dollar for that.


They, of course, wouldn’t have blamed Ben Bernanke devaluing the US Dollar to a 40 year low for the all-time high in SP500 Earnings (2015) though. That would be as ridiculous as blaming the machines and corporate buy-backs for market up days.


Last week the US Dollar came back, and the “reflation” trade didn’t like that. With the US Dollar Index +1.2% on the week:


  1. The Euro (vs. USD) fell -0.9% on the week to +2.8% YTD
  2. The Yen (vs. USD) fell -1.4% on the week to +6.3% YTD
  3. The Canadian Dollar (vs. USD) fell -2.0% on the week to +4.3% YTD
  4. Commodities (CRB Index) fell -2.4% on the week to -2.3% YTD
  5. Oil (WTI) fell -4.1% on the week to -1.3% YTD
  6. Gold fell -2.5% on the week to +15.3% YTD


Yeah, I know. Those 5 things are just the things that have immediate-term inverse correlations of 79-99% vs. the US Dollar, but there’s this other big thing called the SP500 that now has an immediate-term (3-week) inverse correlation of -0.80 vs. USD too.


Imagine that. Imagine the machines stopped chasing the hope that the Fed fades on their rate hike plan, the US dollar gets devalued (again), and all of America keeps arguing about the “inequality” gap having nothing to do with Fed Dollar Policy?


You see, when you devalue the purchasing power of a human being:


A) Almost everything they need to buy to survive goes up in price as the value of their currency falls

B) A small % of human beings (i.e. us) get paid if they own the asset prices we are “reflating”


And if you’re not a human being (i.e. you’re a US corporation) and your profits are falling, all you have to do is lever the company up with “cheap” US debt, buy back the stock with other people’s money, lower the share count, and pay yourself on non-GAAP earnings per share.




While small/mid cap US Equities reverted to their bear market mean last week (Russell 2000 down -2.0% on the week and -16.7% since US Corporate Profits peaked in Q2 of 2015), so did a few other US Equity Market Style Factors that had had a big 1-month bounce:


  1. High Beta stocks were -2.0% on the week
  2. High Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) stocks were -1.9% on the week
  3. High Short Interest stocks were -1.7% on the week

*Mean performance of Top Quintile vs. Bottom Quintile (SP500 companies)


At the same time, Consensus Macro positioning remained what most US stock market bulls would have to admit they want/need from here (Down Dollar => Up Gold, Commodities, and Oil):


  1. Net LONG position in USD (CFTC futures/options contracts) was -2.16x standard deviations vs. its TTM average
  2. Net LONG positions in Gold and Oil held 1yr z-scores of +2.45x and +1.33x, respectively


In other words, in the face of both the economy and profits slowing, Wall St. wants to go back to that ole story of Burning The Buck, I guess. It’s sad and it probably won’t work… but, as Shakespeare went on to say about profits and pleasures, “study what you most affect.”


Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:


SPX 1983-2061
RUT 1060-1107
USD 94.68-97.01
Oil (WTI) 36.06-42.91

Gold 1208-1275


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


[UNLOCKED] Early Look: The Taming of Profits - 3 28 Profits Down  Stocks Down Slide 39

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