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Takeaway: How a “forecast” goes from +2.7% GDP only a month ago to +0.6% today boggles the mind.

Editor's Note: This is an abridged excerpt from today's Early LookClick here to subscribe.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Jumps the Shark - z fonz

Wow. Is this Atlanta Fed “GDP Now” model getting ugly. How a GDP “forecast” goes from +2.7% GDP only a month ago to +0.6% today is beyond me, to be quite frank!

We’re sticking with what was the Street’s low Q1 US GDP forecast of 1% (our predictive tracking algorithm and mapping/measurement #process has been accurate, within 25-50 basis points, on GDP for the last 5 quarters – without the 200bps intra-quarter swings!).

And, more importantly, we’re reiterating that the US economic and profit cycle won’t even have a chance of putting in a rate of change (cycle) bottom until Q2 which, candidly, won’t be reported until Q3.

Click to enlarge

 

...AND Here's Fonzie jumping the shark.