Long-term Bonds Yields are down after yet another US #HousingSlowing report (New Home Sales for FEB -6.1% year-over-year).
So I want to take this green day (in the Long Bond) as a selling opportunity as I am officially concerned the Fed makes yet another Policy Mistake (either raising rates in April or signaling they're raising in June in the April statement).
The US Dollar has done nothing but go up this week post multiple Fed heads making hawkish statements, and there's obviously a lot of market risk in that (see "reflation" on Down Dollar trades for details!).
While the Fed shouldn't be raising rates into a slow-down (remember what happened to markets post the DEC hike), that doesn't mean they won't. One of the biggest markets risks has always been the Fed's forecasts.
This isn't a "sell all" call on the Long Bond. It's a book some gains call as you've had a great YTD being long TLT instead of SPY.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer