INSIGHT | Another Trump Victory (And Why California Could Decide GOP Nomination)

Takeaway: What to watch on the election 2016 campaign trail.

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.

DEBATE SABOTEUR:

INSIGHT | Another Trump Victory (And Why California Could Decide GOP Nomination) - trumplican

In an impeccably timed announcement ensuring any fallout was overshadowed by the SCOTUS press conference, Trump declared that he is going to speak at the AIPAC conference instead of appearing at the now-canceled Fox debate on Monday. This is another victory for Trump -- it denies his rivals and the media a chance to gang up on him and exploit his vulnerabilities -- while flexing new muscle as the frontrunner. At this point, the only thing that seems to have a chance of derailing Donald Trump is...Donald Trump. 

ALL ROADS LEAD TO... CALIFORNIA?  

INSIGHT | Another Trump Victory (And Why California Could Decide GOP Nomination) - cruz picture

After crunching the Republican delegate numbers, we think the race may very well come down to CA. If Trump wins the Golden State, we think he will likely exceed the magic number of delegates he needs for the nomination. There has been scant polling in CA to date, but what we've seen shows a narrow Trump lead, with Cruz breathing down his neck. CA often votes too late to be a determining factor in the nomination, and as a solid blue state rarely receives presidential election love -- however, this year it is in a position to be a determining factor in whether there will be a contested Republican convention.

reTRUMPlicans:

For months, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) has been preparing for a Republican ticket with Trump or Ted Cruz on top. With Trump as the presumptive nominee, they're now putting their playbook in motion, tying vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election to Trump's controversial policies and personality. Some strategists are predicting up to an eight percent drop across the polls for Republican Senators in the general election if Trump is on the ballot. Looking to capitalize on the 13 Senators who pledged to back the eventual nominee, the DSCC has dubbed them "reTRUMPlicans," faithful only to the "Party of Trump."