Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.
There are 150 delegates at stake tonight -- MI, MS, ID, and HI. Donald Trump is leading in MI with 59 delegates at stake, but John Kasich and Ted Cruz are both on his heels. If Trump pulls off a double-digit win in MI and takes MS as well, then the weakness in his numbers from the past weekend's primaries, currently being touted by the establishment press, will feel like an aberration.
If the race is closer than expected, then the toll from two poor debate performances, millions of dollars in attack ads, and opposition from most of the Republican establishment may be taking root, and could make the winner-take-all primaries much closer than the pundits are predicting.
The Republican establishment has long detested Cruz, but his lead over Marco Rubio is persuading some that he is best-positioned to block Trump. We're hearing whispers that a number of Rubio supporters are quietly preparing to jump to Cruz's ship, while additional reports claim "multiple" senators will endorse Cruz later this week. Still, Rubio's camp insists that once they win Florida, the map favors them after March 15th... leaving Rubio no incentive to get out.
WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON?
Since Super Tuesday a loose anti-Trump coalition has spent over $10 million on ads targeting the Republican frontrunner -- an effort to impede Trump's popularity in delegate-rich states like FL and IL. While these ads are ubiquitous in those states and others, they fail to guide voters towards another candidate, and Trump's core supporters will blindly follow him into November.
If Trump cleans up on March 15th then the anti-Trump movement may be short-lived. The real damage will take its toll in the general election -- with the Dems' gift that keeps on giving from the Dean of the Establishment Mitt Romney and other Republican leaders providing great substance to the anti-Trump storyline.