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US #Recession Tracker

Takeaway: 70% of the economy is slowing from its peak.

While there have been plenty thesis drifts from pro-cyclical bulls (from lower gas prices were going to stimulate Q4 consumer spending to its this cycle is “different”), reality is that almost every US consumer time series of economic data peaked in 1H of 2015.


Interestingly but not surprisingly, the Employment Index of the ISM Services Index peaked at 59.2 in JULY of 2015 – that’s right when both the US stock market and US profit cycle peaked (and the credit cycle started to breakout in kind). It dropped to 49.7 on Thursday.


US #Recession Tracker - zz keith pic

JT Taylor: Who Won Last Night's GOP Debate?

Takeaway: What to watch on the election 2016 campaign trail.

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.



JT Taylor: Who Won Last Night's GOP Debate? - kasich


We've thought before that John Kasich was the winner of past debates, only to realize that we were one of the lone (if not the only) voices in the wilderness. But we're sticking by our guns this time around and declaring him our winner of last night's, well, debate in Detroit.


Donald Trump came under fire from Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and the Fox moderators -- who finally shed light on the costs of his proposals - but the Teflon Donald dodged the constant barrage of attacks on his business record as well as his vague policy positions.  Kasich wasn't baited into the scrum, kept to his script and discussed his record and solutions for the country in sharp, sharp contrast to the sideshow taking place just feet away from him.


Now back to reality. We don't see last night changing the contours of the race or Trump's base of support -- though Kasich may get another look and some support in a few critical upcoming states.



JT Taylor: Who Won Last Night's GOP Debate? - trump 676


The Republican establishment has hit the snooze button more times than they had thought. They have now begun to scramble to dethrone Trump's campaign -- coming about six months too late.


Donors, party leaders, and super PACs have been pouring money into ads (especially in FL) while publicly decrying the business mogul, as a joint effort against him (see next  bullet) -- leaving many to wonder if this is doing more harm to the party than good. All of this has sparked suggestions of a third party being born as a result of the rift.


How will conservatives successfully argue their point when Trump is the legitimate frontrunner? 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power

Takeaway: CME Group reported all-time record trading volumes in February this week with pricing power also bolstering results.

CME Group (CME) punched out its finalized monthly stats for February this week with rare strength across the board for a financials company. Trading volume in the 2nd month of the year put in new all-time highs at 18.7 million contracts per day, up 18% year-over-year and exhibiting momentum by taking out the prior high just set a month ago in January. In addition, the exchange on the margin has increased its base rate in interest rates and energy contracts which is resulting in rare pricing power in financial services. The 3 month moving average of rate per contract (RPC) in February settled at $0.77 per contract, up +2% year-over-year from $0.75 in 1Q15. In a rare combination of increasing volume AND price, CME (and to a lesser extent ICE) is one of the few growth stories in financials. We prefer CME to ICE with open interest up +12% year over year in Chicago versus the more market data driven emphasis in Atlanta with open interest only up 6%. We value CME on $5 in earnings power per share still +10% ahead of consensus.


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - opening chart 


Weekly Activity Wrap Up

Cash equity and options volumes grew week over week while futures volume shrunk. 1Q16TD average daily volumes (ADVs) remain well above their year-ago levels in all three categories. Cash equity volume for the week came in at 8.5 billion shares traded per day, bringing the 1Q16TD ADV to 9.0 billion, up +30% Y/Y. Futures activity at CME and ICE came in at 20.9 million contracts traded per day this week, bringing the 1Q16TD ADV to 24.0 million, up +20% Y/Y. Additionally, CME's open interest currently tallies 113.4 million contracts, +24% higher than the 91.3 million pending at the end of 2015, which will drag trading volume higher going forward. Options came in at 16.1 million contracts traded per day this week, bringing the 1Q16TD ADV to 17.8 million, up +15% Y/Y. 


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon1


U.S. Cash Equity Detail

U.S. cash equities trading came in at 8.5 billion shares per day this week, bringing the 1Q16TD average to 9.0 billion shares per day. That marks +30% Y/Y and +28% Q/Q growth. The market share battle for volume is mixed. The New York Stock Exchange/ICE is taking a 24% share of first-quarter volume, which is consistent with the prior quarter and year-ago quarter, while NASDAQ is taking an 18% share, +9 bps higher Q/Q but -139 bps lower than one year ago.


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon2


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon3


U.S. Options Detail

U.S. options activity came in at a 16.1 million ADV this week, bringing the 1Q16TD average to 17.8 million, a +15% Y/Y and +11% Q/Q expansion. In the market share battle amongst venues, NYSE/ICE has been trending downward at a moderate pace, but at an 18% share it is +60 bps higher than the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile, NASDAQ's recent declines bring it -400 bps lower than 1Q15. CBOE's market share is down -126 bps Y/Y but has improved recently; its 27% share of 1Q16TD volume is up +152 bps from 4Q15. BATS and ISE/Deutsche have been taking share from the competing exchanges, with BATS up to a 10% share from 9% a year ago and ISE/Deutsche taking 16%, up from 13% a year ago.


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon4


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon5


U.S. Futures Detail

15.7 million futures contracts traded through CME Group this week, bringing the 1Q16TD average to 18.2 million, a +21% Y/Y and +38% Q/Q expansion. Additionally, CME open interest, the most important beacon of forward activity, currently sits at 113.4 million CME contracts pending, good for +24% growth over the 91.3 million pending at the end of 4Q15, an improvement from last week's +21%.


Contracts traded through ICE came in at 5.3 million per day this week, bringing the 1Q16TD ADV to 5.8 million, +16% Y/Y and +22% Q/Q growth. ICE open interest this week tallied 68.6 million contracts, a +8% expansion versus the 63.7 million contracts open at the end of 4Q15, a deterioration from last week's +9%.


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon6


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon8


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon7


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon9 


Monthly Historical View

Monthly activity levels give a broader perspective of exchange based trends. As volatility levels, measured by the VIX, MOVE, and FX Vol should rise to normal levels after the drastic compression this cycle, we expect all marketplaces to experience higher activity levels.


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon10


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon11


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon12


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon13


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon15

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Record Volume with Pricing Power - XMon14



Please let us know of any questions,


Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 




 Joshua Steiner, CFA





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The Last Commodity Bubble Still Standing

Takeaway: Commodities investor Jim Rogers once famously remarked farmers would soon be the ones driving Lamborghinis. Maybe not on second thought.

In this new, must-see market discussion, Blue Pacific Partners founder Chris Sommers sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss the huge risk embedded in agricultural commodities. According to Sommers, excessive investment has caused overcapacity, while global demand growth projections have been reduced. Meanwhile, major agricultural commodities are still trading 50-75% higher than their long-term average levels … before the commodity boom.


In part two of their conversation, Sommers lays out his high-conviction bear case in granular detail with emphasis on Deere and Monsanto.



Stock Report: Lazard (LAZ)

Takeaway: We added LAZ to Investing Ideas on the short side on 3/1.

Stock Report: Lazard (LAZ) - HE LAZ table 3 4 16


Our main contention is that Wall Street is ignoring warnings signs of a high-water mark in M&A, including rising private equity participation levels and also all-time highs in consideration value.


Both metrics last peaked in 2007. In addition, the constant rise of corporate credit costs from mid-2015 to current day has widely referenced Moody's indices higher by over 100 basis points. Our research shows that a move of this magnitude has historically impacted M&A by -20% on an annual basis.



Stock Report: Lazard (LAZ) - lazard


Lazard's asset management business is the crown jewel of emerging market (EM) and non-U.S. international investing and the company is riding the wave of successful new product introductions in strategic equity and infrastructure.


That being said the firm's EM exposure is understated and we estimate that 55% of assets-under-management, and not the stated 30%, is a more accurate picture of the company's absolute EM exposure (when going fund-by-fund and including products in Global and Multi-regional).


Lazard Asset Management has never sidestepped an EM melt-down, experiencing both negative growth and also market depreciation. In the '02-'05 EM cycle, the division experienced over -4% decay rates and market depreciation in various years of up to -10%. 



Street estimates are unbelievably complacent in our view with numbers that completely ignore the hyper-cyclicality of the advisory and asset management businesses.


If you "give" the firm the best of all worlds, the 2015 M&A revenue environment; the record restructuring revenue environment of 2009; and the high-water mark in asset management in 2014, those revenues tally $2.68 billion creating EPS of $3.79. The Street currently is at $2.78 billion in top-line for 2017 on EPS of $4.01 with '18 at $2.82 billion and $4.40.


By way of contrast, for 2016, we think the company will earn under $3 in earnings, some -20% below the Street. Our base case estimate is the stock is worth $30 per share on 10x our $3 EPS estimate for '16. Meanwhile, our bear case if M&A activity rolls over by -20%, is a $22 stock at $2.20 in earnings at a 10x multiple.


Stock Report: Lazard (LAZ) - HE LAZ chart 3 4 16

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th

Will the ECB issue “simulative” policy at its next meeting Thursday, March 10th?  Our opinion is a resounding YES!  Skip further down the page for our 7 supporting pieces of evidence.


What’s in the cards?  It’s anyone’s guess but we see a strong probability that the ECB’s QE program is increased (up from monthly allotments of €60 Billion) and we could see further points shaved off the Deposit Rate (currently at -0.30%). 


Will it move the economic needle?  No!  As we’ve called for time and time again, we do not see Draghi (nor other global central bankers) arresting Economic Gravity.  For example, Eurozone CPI has held below +0.5% for the last 20 months (and is currently negative at -0.2%), this all in a period in which Draghi’s has purchased €780 billion in sovereign paper as a “simulative” and “inflationary” policy.  How about that 2.0% inflation target?  A pipe dream!


EUR/USD.  What is different this time around is our call that the ECB’s Extend & Pretend “simulative measures” will strengthen the EUR/USD rather than weaken the common currency.  Specifically, we expect the EUR/USD to bounce on March 10th if more QE is announced.


How’s that?  As Keith explains in his Big Bang Theory, after 600 rate cuts globally, there’s a new regime of investors that has given up on the belief that central bankers can artificially produce stimulus and weaken their currency for economic benefit.  This policy hasn’t worked in Japan, and it isn’t going to work in the Eurozone.


In the chart directly below we outline that our Big Bang Theory could get the EUR/USD up to our TREND ($1.12) and TAIL ($1.13) resistance levels, or a monster gain of 1% to 2.7% from current levels. We'd also expect associated selling of European equities. 


Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a. EUR USD


Our Top 7:  The Forces Starring Draghi Straight in the Face… and Suggesting Policy “Action”:

  1. It’s All About Inflation!  Or lack thereof… Not only is the ECB nowhere near its 2.0% inflation target, CPI is negative!  In the initial February reading, Eurozone CPI fell to -0.20% Y/Y vs Expectations for 0.00% and Prior +0.30%. This is the first time inflation went into negative territory since September 2015. #GravityHurts
  2. Producer Price Index, like CPI, mirrors the deflationary forces, most currently at -2.9% JAN Y/Y, and has been in negative territory since July 2013!  (see Super Mario chart below)
  3. Growth is Anemic.  See our proprietary Eurozone GIP (growth, inflation, policy) for the coming quarters (ugly Quad 4 = growth slowing as inflation decelerates); declining Eurozone Confidence figures; and recent trends in PMIs = down!   (See charts below)
  4. The ECB Council is overwhelmed with Doves (see Bloomberg Industries chart below) and has telegraphed policy Action!
    • In a letter to a European MEP, ECB President Draghi reiterated that the policy review in March should be seen against a background of increased downside risks to the earlier outlook. The letter confirms that the technical preparations are being made in order to ensure that the full range of policy options are available.
    • ECB’s VP Constancio recently said that while no decisions have been made, a lack of confidence in getting inflationary pressures higher could cause his central bank to deliver more stimulous next month.
    • ECB’s Liikanen said the central bank is ready to use additional monetary policy measures, if needed, to reach its targets.

5. A Year Later… Draghi last cut the Deposit Rate in December 2015 (by 10bps to -0.30%) and issued the QE “Drugs” (monthly asset purchases set at €60 Billion/month) in January 2015. With investors wanting results yesterday, one year into this program is a long time. Delivering more “non-conventional” policy “sauce” is a great way to CYA after a year in which Draghi failed to arrest declines in growth and inflation.

6. ECB Minutes called for downward pressure on inflation outlook from the decline in oil prices and oil futures curve.

7. ECB External Projections Down.  In January, the ECB published its updated economic projections by external analysts (not the ECB staff who announces updates at the March meeting) and the forecast for inflation expectations were lowered.  

    • Professional forecasters cut inflation forecast to 0.7% in 2016 vs prior 1%, 2017 at 1.4% vs 1.5% and 2018 at 1.6%. 

Mr Draghi, we'll be tuned in this coming Thursday!


Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a. Eurozone cpi and ppi

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - EUROZONE

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a. Eurozone Conf. Econo

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a  Eurozone Business Climate

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - A. Eurozone PMI

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a. PMI Charts

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - ECB Council

Top 7 Reasons Why the ECB Will Act on March 10th - a. Main interest rates

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