US #Recession Tracker

Takeaway: 70% of the economy is slowing from its peak.

While there have been plenty thesis drifts from pro-cyclical bulls (from lower gas prices were going to stimulate Q4 consumer spending to its this cycle is “different”), reality is that almost every US consumer time series of economic data peaked in 1H of 2015.

Interestingly but not surprisingly, the Employment Index of the ISM Services Index peaked at 59.2 in JULY of 2015 – that’s right when both the US stock market and US profit cycle peaked (and the credit cycle started to breakout in kind). It dropped to 49.7 on Thursday.

US #Recession Tracker - zz keith pic