Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh

03/03/16 10:47AM EST

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims1

The US labor market continues to look much as it has for the last several months:

  • Energy layoffs continue at an elevated rate
  • Ex-energy layoffs are flat to trending very slightly higher

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims17

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims12

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims13

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims14

the data

Initial jobless claims rose 6k to 278k from 272k WoW. The prior week's number was not revised. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -1.75k WoW to 270.25k.

Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, another way of evaluating the data, was -11.2% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -6.7%

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims2

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims3

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims4

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims5

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims6

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims7

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims8

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims9

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims10

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims11

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims19

Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread fell -1 basis points WoW to 99 bps. 1Q16TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 111 bps, which is lower by -25 bps relative to 4Q15.

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims15

Initial Claims | Energy Still Bad, Ex-Energy Still Meh - Claims16

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.