The Bearish Case On Housing

Takeaway: As demand for housing slows, watch out for decelerating home prices.

We went from being bullish to bearish on housing for the simple reason that when the data goes from "good" to "less good," housing related equities start to decline. And while the U.S. housing sector has had a great run, its momentum has been slowing for several months now.

 

The Bearish Case On Housing - run down houses

 

Case in point: This week's Pending Home Sales data contracted -2.5% sequentially in January, which brings the rate of year-over-year growth to its lowest since late 2014.

 

The Bearish Case On Housing - 03.01.16 Chart 

not good.

 

Why does this matter for housing related stocks? We may be "on the cusp of a negative inflection point for home prices," points out Hedgeye U.S. Macro/Housing analyst Christian Drake, as flagging housing demand (aka Pending Home Sales) "leads price growth by 9 to 12 months."

 

Click on the chart below to enlarge:  

The Bearish Case On Housing - housing demand

 

Equity markets will continue to discount this reality.

 

For more, watch the video below:

 


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