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On today’s Macro Show, Senior Analyst Darius Dale expanded upon our multi-duration outlook for the U.S. Dollar, which is best summarized as follows:

  • Immediate-term TRADE: Bearish (for more information, please review Keith’s 2/23 Early Look titled, “Big Bang Theory)
  • Intermediate-term TREND: Bullish
  • Long-term TAIL: Bullish

CLICK HERE to access the video replay.

CLICK HERE to download the associated presentation (12 slides).

In summary, our multi-duration outlook for the USD would seem to suggest the counter-TREND bounce that’s been distributed across various reflation sectors and assets (e.g. materials, industrials, gold, gold miners, EM) is likely to peter out at some point over the next 4-6 weeks.

While there is likely still money to be made on the long side for traders and high-turnover funds, we think long-term investors would do well to avoid getting sucked into the aforementioned reflation head-fake ahead of a likely crescendo.


Darius Dale