On today’s Macro Show, Senior Analyst Darius Dale expanded upon our multi-duration outlook for the U.S. Dollar, which is best summarized as follows:
- Immediate-term TRADE: Bearish (for more information, please review Keith’s 2/23 Early Look titled, “Big Bang Theory”)
- Intermediate-term TREND: Bullish
- Long-term TAIL: Bullish
CLICK HERE to access the video replay.
CLICK HERE to download the associated presentation (12 slides).
In summary, our multi-duration outlook for the USD would seem to suggest the counter-TREND bounce that’s been distributed across various reflation sectors and assets (e.g. materials, industrials, gold, gold miners, EM) is likely to peter out at some point over the next 4-6 weeks.
While there is likely still money to be made on the long side for traders and high-turnover funds, we think long-term investors would do well to avoid getting sucked into the aforementioned reflation head-fake ahead of a likely crescendo.