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Takeaway: An inside look at one of the top three indicators we use to forecast an economic downturn.

Another Economic Indicator Signals Recession - recession cartoon 02.04.2016

Below is a brief update on our U.S. economic outlook from our Macro team in a note to subscribers this morning:

"Yesterday we received incremental confirmation of our U.S. #Recession theme in the form of a sharp downtick in Consumer Confidence during the month of February to 92.2 from a downwardly revised 97.8 prior. This series is now slowing on a sequential, trending and quarterly average basis."

Another Economic Indicator Signals Recession - consumer confidence peaked

Recall that a breakdown in consumer confidence is among the top three (of several) proprietary indicators we use to forecast an economic downturn, with the other two being a breakdown in Corporate Profits and a breakout in Initial Jobless Claims. The confluence of these indicators is currently suggesting a recession is likely to commence within 1-3 quarters.

How do you play the coming recession? Watch this video...