Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.
This primary season so far has exposed a major enthusiasm gap among the two parties. Turnout for the first three Republican contests was up 22.1% over 2012, while the Democrats have seen a 22.2% decrease. The record Republican turnout is in part due to the overwhelming number of voters motivated by Donald Trump -- whether they're supporting or opposing him. Trump has energized the field and brought with him new and previously-disengaged voters.
Hillary Clinton's campaign is counting on reviving the 'Obama coalition' of young and minority voters, but only Sanders has tapped into the youth vote so far. She's adopted (finally) a lot of his campaign rhetoric and has started to place less emphasis on herself and her qualifications, and more on what she would deliver for voters.
We think much of the dismal Democratic turnout can be attributed to her inability to do this so far -- she'll need to recalibrate further to deny Sanders a way back into the race and to prepare for the fall...
The raison d'être of Ted Cruz's campaign is that his character and personal convictions would give him an advantage in early, evangelical-rich states such as SC, where two thirds of Republican primary voters identified as either evangelical or born-again Christians. Yet Trump and Rubio took SC by storm, carrying the evangelical vote while Cruz was left holding the bag.
If Cruz can't recapture this support in the Super Tuesday Bible Belt states (AL, GA, MI, OK, TN...) which have a similar proportion of evangelical votes as SC -- we see him getting boxed out of the more moderate/purple states.