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Takeaway: A precarious setup for US stocks and the economy.

The Eerie Specter Of 2007-2008 Looms Large - recession cartoon 02.22.2016

"No market crisis is alike, but they sure do rhyme a lot," Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale wrote this morning.


Dale points to the chart below showing the 2007-2008 stock market panic against the 2016 performance of the S&P 500.

The similarities are uncanny.

That's not all. The eerie rhyme of 2007-2008 isn't the exclusive domain of the stock market. Recent economic data continues to confirm our Macro team's dour outlook for the U.S. (the probability of an outright #Recession in Q2 or Q3 of 2016 is rising).

Today's Consumer Confidence reading did little to change our opinion. U.S. Consumer Confidence slowed to 92.2 after registering it's cycle high in FEB of 2015. Remember: Consumer Confidence slowing from its cycle peak = 1 of Top 3 leading indicators for US #Recession.

 In the video below, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses the 3 leading indicators of a US Recession. (Note: They're all currently flashing red.)

None of this bodes well for perma-bulls.