CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At The Fed's Serial Over-Optimism In The Last Half Decade

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

"Policy makers have serially overestimated growth by ~100bps (i.e. by ~50% with growth only averaging ~2%) every year over the last half-decade (see Chart of the Day below).

 

Conspicuous forecast error is the post-crisis norm but how can policy be successfully normal-ized or calibrated with normal, conventional models that fail to fit the new, less Panglossian empirical normal?"

CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At The Fed's Serial Over-Optimism In The Last Half Decade - CoD Fed Optimism