Since January, our Macro team has highlighted the increasing likelihood that the U.S. economy slips into recession sometime in Q2 or Q3 of 2016. Below are charts and analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale based on today's economic data.
While today's jobless claims data was strong, a "strong" jobs market always precedes a recession.
Consumer confidence is beginning to roll over...
"On a ratio basis, however, it's starting to signal what the trend in corporate profits and jobless claims already have ("Recession" in ~6 months)," Dale writes.
Here's the chart.
Recessionary gales are blowing. Dale is also tabulating a massive amount of economic data that is heading south.
Still unconvinced? Watch McCullough in the video below laying out "The Three Signs of A Coming Recession."