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The Macro Show Replay | February 17, 2016

 


Cartoon of the Day: The Dying Cartel

Cartoon of the Day: The Dying Cartel - OPEC cartoon 02.16.2016

 

News of OPEC's death might not be an exaggeration.


Call Invite | Is the Market Prepared for What South Carolina May Signal?

Please join us Friday, February 19 at 11:00 a.m. for a special call with South Carolina's Republican and Democratic Party Chairmen, as we approach a pivotal moment in the election calendar. Specifically, there's less than one week left until the first votes are cast for the Republicans on February 20 followed by the Democrats on February 27. As such, we're very pleased to be hosting Democratic Chair Jamie Harrison and Republican Chair Matt Moore, who will give us their respective outlooks on how each race is developing in their state, and examine South Carolina's impact beyond the primary -- including a preview of Nevada and the Super Tuesday states voting March 1.

 

  • Matt Moore's bio available HERE
  • Jamie Harrison's bio available HERE


Dial-In Instructions for the Live Call:

 

 

If you have a question(s) you would like to ask, please send an email before or during the call to 

 

About Potomac Research Group

Potomac Research Group -- a Hedgeye company -- is a well-respected team providing Washington policy analysis to institutional investors and private equity firms. Together with Hedgeye's Macro and fundamental investment research, PRG's actionable, predictive and non-consensus analysis of federal legislative activities and regulatory policies helps clients determine Washington's impact on highly-regulated industry sectors, including health care, defense, finance, technology, and telecommunications.

For more information, please contact .


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

DRI: Adding Darden Restaurants to Investing Ideas (Short Side)

Takeaway: We are adding Darden Restaurants to Investing Ideas today.

Editor's Note: Please note that Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney will send out a full report outlining our high-conviction short thesis later this week. In the meantime, below is a brief update sent today by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in Real-Time Alerts:

 

DRI: Adding Darden Restaurants to Investing Ideas (Short Side) - darden

 

"I'm looking for the "consumer is in good shape" narratives to short...

 

And Howard Penney (of Chipotle short selling fame) is telling me to look no further than the never ending bowl of storytelling pasta.

 

Darden is up on a rope relative to where it was when Penney went bullish on it a few years ago... and he reminded our Institutional Research subscribers why it could go back to where it was on a conference call on February 2nd, 2016.

 

His new target price range is in the low $40’s 

 

Insiders might agree. Per Penney, "recently DRI’s largest shareholder announced it was selling more stock.  DRI’s core brand, Olive Garden is in need of a massive infusion of capital to fix the secular decline in traffic. 

 

Knowing this investment will slow earnings growth and depress the multiple; we don’t want to own the stock either!"

 

Short Green,

KM"

 


McCullough: ‘Are You Bearish Enough?’

 

In this brief excerpt of The Macro Show from this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why most investors aren’t bearish enough.


4 Charts That Will Shape The Presidential Election

265 days left until America heads to the polls. On this note, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale recently laid out the "most important charts that have and will continue to shape the election." You can follow Darius on Twitter via @HedgeyeDDale

 

Here's the brief rundown:

 

1. Check out the decline in average employee compensation, even while the Fed massively expanded its balance sheet.

 

Click to enlarge.

4 Charts That Will Shape The Presidential Election - fed balance sheet

 

2. U.S. Household Wealth as a % of Disposable Personal Income vs Shadow Federal Funds Rate

 

Click to enlarge.

4 Charts That Will Shape The Presidential Election - household wealth

 

3. Here's the breakdown in U.S. household wealth by percentile.

 

Click to enlarge.

4 Charts That Will Shape The Presidential Election - wealth distrib

 

4. And the breakdown of ownership of financial assets by household wealth distribution.

 

Click to enlarge.

4 Charts That Will Shape The Presidential Election - wealth distrib fin assets 

 

In essence, a large contributor to the sustained Trump/Sanders appeal appears to be (despite the Fed's best efforts) that many Americans aren't participating in the central bank's easy-money economic "recovery." 


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