2 Charts That Aren't "Transitory" & Defy Fed Storytelling

Takeaway: Despite the December rate hike, Long Bond yields are falling. Meanwhile, the Fed says commodity deflation is "transitory."

2 Charts That Aren't "Transitory" & Defy Fed Storytelling - yellen pic

 

As we write this post, Fed head Janet Yellen is testifying before Congress. We have been highlighting how the Fed's economic forecasts are consistently wrong and serially overoptimistic. 

 

Most importantly, the Fed continues to call everything they have missed in the past year "transitory." Below are two charts that absolutely aren't transitory no matter what the Fed says.

 

1. The Fed hiked rates in December and yet Long Bond yields have plunged from 2.27% back then to 1.57% today. That's a macro market signal that growth is slowing but the Fed says it's all good. Who is right?

 

Janet?

 

2 Charts That Aren't "Transitory" & Defy Fed Storytelling - rate hike update

 

2. Yellen has consistently said that deflation is "transitory." The CRB Commodity index is down -33% from it's 2015 high.

 

Is that transitory?

 

2 Charts That Aren't "Transitory" & Defy Fed Storytelling - CRB Index

 

Bottom line: The Fed's credibility is crashing and macro market economic data continues to bear that out. Stick with the firm that called both #Deflation and #LowerForLonger (rates).


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