If you're following Old Wall and its media, you're getting smoked this year. If you're following the non-consensus macro team here at Hedgeye you're not. We called it. That's the reality.
Perma-bull Wall Street credibility is crashing just about as hard as global equity markets...
Meanwhile, back at home, the Russell 2000 is a certified train wreck.
We called all of this back in July.
So while Wall Street flounders, we've nailed a number of huge macro calls in 2016, like long Utilities (XLU), short Financials (XLF). XLF is down -14.9% versus XLU up +7.5%.
We have been for some time now, the most bullish firm on Wall Street on Long Bonds (TLT). Since we added TLT to Investing Ideas in August 2014, TLT has beat S&P 500 by a wide margin. It's up +16% versus down -4% for the S&P 500.
Talk about alpha.
The market is slowly but surely pricing in the increasingly likely probability of a U.S. recession. That's been our Macro call since the beginning of this year. Until a few weeks ago, no Old Wall economist had even muttered the "R" word, especially from those mainline labor economists at the Fed. That's slowly changing.
One final point on Wall Street. Lying to people about the economy for your own compensation purposes is fundamentally un-American.