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VIDEO | Earnings In 60 Seconds Or Less: McDonald's, Ralph Lauren, LinkedIn, Yelp

Takeaway: These four video shorts provide instant, post-earnings insights on companies MCD, LNKD, YELP and RL.

Below are four videos via HedgeyeTV with updates on some of our analysts' top long and short ideas following quarterly earnings. Each provides the key takeaways from the quarter in sixty seconds or less. (Click here to subscribe to our YouTube channel.)

 

1. McDonald's

 

Our Restaurants analyst Howard Penney's favorite long call in the sector, McDonald's (MCD). Penney made the bold call back in August that MCD would never trade below $100 again. That's proven prescient. The stock is up +17% since versus down -12% for the S&P 500.

 

 

2. Ralph Lauren 

 

Retail analyst Brian McGough said in a recent research report that Ralph Lauren (RL) is "uninvestable at almost any price." It remains on McGough's Long bench because "it might take a while to get paid" ahead of "yet another restructuring."

 

 

3. LinkedIn 

 

LinkedIn (LNKD) was on Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shabaan's long side but after noting "a deteriorating selling environment and expecting light guidance for 2016" he added it to the short side. Smart move. Earlier in the month, LNKD fell off a cliff and is about 50%. Here's what you need to know now. 

 

 

4. Yelp

 

Another Shabaan short call, Yelp (YELP) "is still chasing consensus estimates while its model continues to unravel. Apparently it hasn't learned much from its mistakes in 2015." The stock is down -45% year-to-date.

 


[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16

Takeaway: In continued risk aversion, investors are piling into tax-free municipal bonds.

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note which was originally published February 4, 2016 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

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Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

In the 5-day period ending January 27th, investors returned to making contributions to equity ETFs with a +$2.0 billion net subscription and international equity funds also saw some interest with a +$1.3 billion inflow. However, the exodus from domestic equity funds continued with a -$6.2 billion outflow last week, negating total net inflows to the total equity category. Additionally, taxable bond funds continued to give up AUM, losing -$1.8 billion to withdrawals. The category has been taking it on the chin recently and has had only 23 weeks of positive inflows in the last 52 weeks. However, investor interest continues in tax-free bonds with investors making a positive contribution of +$856 million. Weekly average contributions in tax-free bonds are up over +200% in 2016, with a mean weekly contribution of +$1.1 billion thus far in the New Year versus the 2015 weekly average of +$314 million. Money funds saw a +$14 billion inflow during the week as investors also shored up cash.


[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI1 large 2 9 16

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending January 27th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$4.9 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$3.2 billion and the 2015 average outflow of -$1.5 billion. The outflow was composed of international stock fund contributions of +$1.3 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$6.2 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 41 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 6 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$917 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$834 million and the 2015 average outflow of -$463 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds contributions of +$856 million and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$1.8 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$2.0 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$4.8 billion but trailing the 2015 average inflow of +$2.8 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net inflows of +$5.3 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.7 billion and the 2015 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.



Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2015 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2016:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI2

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI3

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI4

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI5

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI6



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI12

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI13

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI14

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI15

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI16



Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2015, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2016. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI7

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI8



Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, the defensive utilities XLU and long treasuries TLT ETFs experienced the largest percentage inflows last week of +3% or +$180 million to the XLU and +3% or +$226 million to the TLT.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI9



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI17

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI18



Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative -$7.3 billion spread for the week (-$2.9 billion of total equity outflow net of the +$4.4 billion inflow to fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$437 million (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$20.5 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI10

 


Exposures:
The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Tax-Free Municipal Flows Up Over +200% to Start '16 - ICI11 


Under 60 Seconds: YELP’s Earnings Report

Hedgeye highlights three key points from YELP's rough quarter courtesy of our Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban.


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Crash! Boom! Bang! Global Central Planners Can't Stop The Selloff

Takeaway: Try as they may, central planners can't stop global stock markets from crashing.

Crash! Boom! Bang! Global Central Planners Can't Stop The Selloff - central bankers cartoon 09.08.2015 large

 

"What happens when the baseline belief of central-market-planning breaks?" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough asked in a note to subscribers this morning.

 

Good question. Here's the answer:

 

"Breaking bad, the belief system is here. Japan says “negative yields” (and they got them – 10yr JGB -0.04% now). But the BOJ didn’t get Down Yen, Up Nikkei – they got Up Yen, Crashing Nikkei! (Nikkei -5.4% overnight, -22.8% since July)"

 

Despite the BOJ's best efforts, the Nikkei continues to crash.

 

Then came the mother of all short squeezes on hedge fund crowd long the Yen.

 

 

Over in Europe, the Italian stock market looks dreadful. Central planners at the ECB haven't been able to do anything about it. Sorry Draghi.

 

"If you thought the central planning experiment in the US and Japan went bad, look at what Draghi is doing to the banks in Europe – Italy’s stock market is down another -1.5% this am taking it’s crash (since July) to -32.8% (if the SPX crashed that % it would be at 1436 fyi)"

 

 

Even Germany is crashing from its peak.

 

 

The point here? The Fed, ECB and BOJ can't arrest economic gravity. Growth is slowing and it has been despite central bankers' best efforts. 

 

So while Old Wall media continues to talk about China and oil, we're sticking with our process. That's kept our subscribers out of a lot of trouble here at home and abroad.


RTA Live: February 9, 2016

 


HedgeyeRetail (2/9) | RH Locks Up SF Anchor Space, KATE, NKE

Takeaway: RH secures anchor space at SF Pier 70. KATE lapping 2015 quality of sale initiatives -- one of many tailwinds in 2016.

RH - RH Secures Lease on Historic Landmark Building at San Francisco’s Pier 70

(http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160208005257/en/)

 

Typical RH maneuver in its backyard of SF. Taking a Flagship spot in a new redevelopment, while being one of the first retailers to sign on the dotted line. Leads to below market rents, in an up and coming retail space. That allows the landlords to attract the right type of cotenants around RH as the anchor.

HedgeyeRetail (2/9)  |  RH Locks Up SF Anchor Space, KATE, NKE - 2 9 2016 chart1

 

KATE - Running Flash Sale. Same Time As Last Year.

Promotional cadence planned flat in 2016 after 2015 quality of sale initiatives at both wholly owned and wholesale distribution in the US. One of the many tailwinds for the brand as we enter FY16.

HedgeyeRetail (2/9)  |  RH Locks Up SF Anchor Space, KATE, NKE - 2 9 2016 kate2 chart2

 

NKE - Nike hosting All-Star sneaker events in 4 cities this year where it promises new releases and surprise drops

Another demonstration of the content owner, upstaging its traditional wholesale partners when connecting with consumers.

HedgeyeRetail (2/9)  |  RH Locks Up SF Anchor Space, KATE, NKE - 2 9 2016 chart3

(http://news.nike.com/news/nike-jordan-all-star-experience)

 

NKE/FL - The footwear business could be entirely software-based in 15-20 years

(http://vampfootwear.com/preparing-for-a-3-d-printed-footwear-industry/)

 

AMZN - AWS announces Cross-Platform 3D Game Engine Integrated with AWS cloud &Twitch

(http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160209005740/en/)

 

KORS - Marc Jacobs announces new accessory strategy and price restructuring -- moving leather towards 70% of sales, exceeding Michael Kors' 68.4%

(http://wwd.com/accessories-news/handbags/marc-jacobs-accessory-strategy-with-restructured-pricing-10342545/)

 

ULTA -  Jessica Alba's Honest Beauty line teams up with Ulta to expand nationwide distribution

(http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/honest-beauty-expands-nationwide-distribution-with-ulta-beauty-300216110.html)

 

SKX - Sketchers to extend contract with US marathoner Meb Keflezighi

(http://footwearnews.com/2016/business/athletic-outdoor/skechers-meb-keflezighi-marathon-runner-contract-extension-190442/)

 

Burberry - Fashion shows becoming marketing tool as Burberry will move to a see-now/buy-now collection model -- will no longer unveil clothes six months before they are available in stores

(http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/05/fashion/burberry-announces-a-see-now-buy-now-system-for-new-collections.html?_r=0)

 

FL - FL trying to create buzz with 2016 World Sneaker Championship partnership -- will sell winning design in stores later this year

(http://footwearnews.com/2016/focus/athletic-outdoor/pensole-2016-world-sneaker-championship-foot-locker-190615/)

 

LULU - Athletic apparel retailer Yogasmoga, a fast-growing LULU rival, to open first NYC location

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/fast-growing-lululemon-rival-open-its-first-nyc-store)

 

SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings has big ambitions for more stores and new services as it hits 5,000-store milestone

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/one-watch-sally-beauty-becomes-real-looker)


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